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Were we right about anything? Let's check in on our over/under picks, rookie quarterback rankings, and the predictions we made after 4 games!
We're about halfway through the NFL season. Although the 17-game schedule makes math a lot harder than it should be. Did anyone really want this? Can we just go back to 16 games and things being evenly divisible? It's agitating my OCD. Anyway, here's some stuff we said before the year started and the predictions we made after Week 4. Let's see how wrong we were!
NFC East
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Cowboys — 10.5 wins Pace: 6.4 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Giants — 6.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Under Looking good! | Under Looking good! |
Eagles — 10.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Commanders — 6.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Won! | Over Won! |
Best Bet
Matt: Eagles over (Looking good!)
Well the Eagles keep winning in spite of their coach. After last week's game against the Jaguars in which they led 22-0 and won 28-23, I thought maybe Sirianni would get canned after a win. Either way, they seem poised to get to the 11-win threshold because the Giants and Cowboys are mega ass.
Kirk: Commanders over (Won!)
NFC North
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Bears — 8.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Who knows! | Under Who knows! |
Lions — 10.5 wins Pace: 14.9 wins | Over Looking good! | Over Looking good! |
Packers — 9.5 wins Pace: 11.3 wins | Over Looking good! | Over Looking good! |
Vikings — 7.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Under Looking bad! | Under Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Vikings under (Looking bad!)
Yeah, this is gonna lose. I'm surprised it technically hasn't yet. Maybe they'll go 1-8 down the stretch and we'll pull off the miracle win. Let's hope Sam Darnold turns back into the 2021 version of himself. Kevin O'Connell is probably so gassed up about crypto's successful election that he will be distracted.
Kirk: Lions over (Looking good!)
"Heyyy mann, I'm just so fuckin proud of you guys mann. This team is special. I'm gonna say that again. This team is special. We're built different. We're built ford tough. We don't quit. I'm your dad, you're all my kids, and I'm so fuckin proud mann." - Dan Campbell
I love Dan Campbell. In reference to the gif above - he is the real life Ted Lasso. Enthusiasm and positivity when genuine is infectious. People want to believe and this man has his team doing it. I love watching them play.
NFC South
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Falcons — 9.5 wins Pace: 11.3 wins | Over Looking good! | Over Looking good! |
Panthers — 5.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Saints — 7.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Buccaneers — 7.5 wins Pace: 7.6 wins | Under Who knows! | Over Who knows! |
Best Bet
Matt: Falcons over (Looking good!)
Atlanta has been rounding into form, with even fantasy pariah Kyle Pitts making plays lately. Kirk Cousins certainly is not sexy, but he can keep an offense moving. The Falcons are also going to benefit from playing in a dreadful division with the pitiful Panthers and Saints, and the Bucs who they already swept.
Kirk: Panthers under (Looking good!)
What a doo doo, straight ass, silly team! But hey, at least they beat the Giants this year am I right? Not sure what this coaching staff (year 1) can look to hang their hat on besides their run game. Chuba Hubbard has had an excellent year and behind less than stellar line which is even more impressive. But that's it. Everything else is pain. This one and the Lions I'll regret not betting alongside the Commanders (did I mention I hit that?).
NFC West
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Cardinals — 7.5 wins Pace: 9.4 wins | Under Looking bad! | Over Looking good! |
Rams — 8.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Who knows! | Over Who knows! |
49ers — 11.5 wins Pace: 8.5 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Seahawks — 7.5 wins Pace: 7.6 wins | Under Who knows! | Under Who knows! |
Best Bet
Matt: Cardinals under (Looking bad!)
Dang, I kind of like the Cardinals? I thought they might be fun but I didn't think their defense would be good enough to keep them in games. Turns out they are definitely fun and their defense is just plain bad, not absolutely pathetic bad like I assumed they would be. They are the only team with a winning record in the NFC West.
Kirk: Rams over (Who knows!)
This division is interesting.
I have no idea what's going on. I'm just rooting against the niners.
Other Predictions
Playoff Picture
After 9 Weeks | Matt's 2024 Picks | Kirk's 2024 Picks | |
Number 1 Seed | Lions | Eagles | Lions |
Division Winners | Commanders Falcons Cardinals | 49ers Packers Falcons | Cowboys Falcons Rams |
Wild Cards | Vikings Eagles Packers | Lions Rams Bears | 49ers Buccaneers Eagles |
Best QB on a New Team
Cousins (ATL), Williams (CHI), McCarthy (MIN), Daniels (WAS)
Matt: Caleb Williams (CHI)
Kirk: Kirk Cousins (ATL)
This category is firmly decided. Jayden Daniels has won.
Biggest Disappointment
Team that comes the furthest from exceeding their win total.
Matt: Vikings (trending towards beating their total by 5.3 wins)
I was officially wrong about this pick. If I had to re-pick for the second half, I think I'd take the Cowboys. They are trending towards falling 4.1 wins short and might be starting Cooper Rush? Not good.
Kirk: Bears (trending towards landing directly on their total)
I think even if they land around their modest win total they could still be considered a huge disappointment. For all my complaints about my team, I look at this shitty franchise and the Jets and can at least roll over and go to sleep without screaming into the darkness.
Biggest Overachiever
Team that exceeds their win total by the biggest margin.
Matt: Commanders (trending towards beating their total by 6.3 wins)
This is looking like the right pick, though their recent wins have been less dominant than their earlier victories. Needing a Hail Mary to beat the Bears and letting the Giants hang around might not be the best signs of how this team will look down the stretch. For now though, they are money. Cashing their over after 9 weeks is pretty good.
Kirk: Rams (trending towards landing directly on their total)
While I still like them, I guess, this team has not been fun to watch this year. Yes, they've dealt with major injuries (who hasn't), but they just seem so, boring? I'm not sure what's going on. The end of last season it was explosive play after play, up tempo, tough as shit football. I haven't been watching as much as I could be I suppose but I feel like their run game is flat and maybe Stafford's age (36, old fuck) is catching up to him.
Matt's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
The Eagles will go undefeated during this stretch ✅
It hasn't always been pretty, but they've taken care of business and won four in a row against the Browns, Giants, Bengals, and Jags. The most impressive was the 37-17 beatdown of Cincinnati. If they play like that down the stretch, they will be scary in the postseason as long as someone locks Sirianni in a broom closet.
The Vikings will fall out of first place in the NFC North ✅
The purple people eaters are starting to sputter a bit and the Lions just never lose. So this prediction came true. I'd love to see them continue to fall, just because I'm spiteful. I thought they'd be horrible and loaded up on their under. Even though that won't happen, I'm still going to root against them.
Matthew Stafford will get traded ❌
When I wrote this the Rams were 1-3 and looked completely cooked. They've gone 3-1 since then and have climbed within 1 game of first place in the division. Stafford now has his weapons Kupp and Nacua back, making them an interesting team to watch over the next few weeks.
Matt's Three Predictions for Weeks 10-13
The Rams will climb into first place in the NFC West
They are currently in second place at 4-4. Just behind the 5-4 Cardinals and owning the tiebreaker against the 4-4 Niners. They have games against the Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles, and Saints coming up. That feels like 3-1, so if the Cardinals stumble at all over the next couple of weeks this has a definite chance.
The Bears lose by 3 scores on Thanksgiving
It's all going to come apart at the seams for this Bears team who I do not like. They play the Pats in Week 10 (fine), but then they have the Packers, Vikings, Lions, 49ers, Vikings again, Lions again, Seahawks, and Packers again. Holy shit. How many of those games do they win? 1 or 2?
The Eagles leapfrog the Commanders into first place
Thank you to Jayden for the thrilling start to the season and for cashing the Commanders over by Week 9. But now I see them leveling off. Rookie quarterbacks tend to hit a bit of a wall midseason and the Commanders have tough games coming up, including a pivotal Thursday night showdown against the Eagles in Week 11.
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
The Eagles Fire Nick Sirianni ❌
The Seahawks go 4-1 over this stretch ❌
I'm dyslexic and I meant to type 1-4, which they did. Matt wants me to keep this as a loss but really I think he's a bigot against handicapped people.
Sam Darnold becomes the front runner for MVP ❌
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 10-13
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 10-13
Baker Mayfield will lead the Buc's on a 3-1 streak and push for the playoffs.
Guy is a beast and his team loves him. And did I mention I also hate the niners?
The Bears will bench Caleb Williams
I may be cheating a bit, as I'm writing this the day they just fired their OC. But the dude is getting the shit beat out of him. One more terrible game against the hated Green Bay Packers and they'll red shirt him in an attempt to keep some of his confidence for next year.
The Eagles will fire Nick Sirianni.
AFC East
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Bills — 10.5 wins Pace: 13.2 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Dolphins — 9.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Over Looking bad! | Under Looking good! |
Patriots — 4.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Jets — 9.5 wins Pace: 5.7 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Dolphins over (Looking bad!)
Haha yeah this pick sucks. The Dolphins haven't been fun to watch at all. It's not really their fault that Tua got hurt again, even if it was pretty predictable. The most exciting thing about them this year was when Tyreek got handcuffed outside of the stadium. That's not great!
Kirk: Bills under (Looking bad!)
I have no regrets here. I guess I can admit I attempted to reverse jinx this team into oblivion. Didn't work! I can be the bigger man and admit I was wrong.
Can't wait to bet these guys to win against KC this week!!!!
AFC North
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Ravens — 10.5 wins Pace: 11.3 wins | Under Looking bad! | Under Looking bad! |
Bengals — 10.5 wins Pace: 7.6 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Browns — 8.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
Steelers — 8.5 wins Pace: 12.8 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Bengals under (Looking good!)
It was the sluggish, sloppy start that has become Zac Taylor's trademark. But they have looked better on offense over the past couple of weeks. They'll need to go 7-1 down the stretch to beat me , so I'm feeling good. I write this on the eve of their Thursday night game against Baltimore, which could put me one loss away from cashing.
Kirk: Bengals over (Looking bad!)
Please see Matt's response above and just know that I'm not happy about it.
Also please note, I love that I get to go second with my comments as a total cop out and get to ride Matt's coattails of effort.
I love you, and I forgive you for everything Matt.
AFC South
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Texans — 9.5 wins Pace: 11.3 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Colts — 8.5 wins Pace: 7.6 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
Jaguars — 8.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Under Looking good! | Under Looking good! |
Titans — 6.5 wins Pace: 4.3 wins | Under Looking good! | Over Looking bad! |
Best Bet
Matt: Colts over (Looking bad!)
I truly have no idea what to expect out of this team from week to week. Their over definitely isn't dead, especially if they are playing in a division with the rudderless Jags and Titans. But the Flacco/Richardson quarterback battle isn't giving me the warm and fuzzy feeling that I was hoping to get from Indy.
Kirk: Jaguars under (Looking good!)
Doug Pederson will always have a place in Philadelphia fans hearts for what he, Nick Foles, and that whole squad accomplished by winning the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for Doug, I'm a transplant and adopted the team before their Super Bowl season so don't have any of the pain, emotional baggage and gratitude that other Philly fans have.
You fucking suck Doug!
AFC West
Over/Under Picks
Team | Matt | Kirk |
Broncos — 5.5 wins Pace: 9.4 wins | Under Looking bad! | Under Looking bad! |
Chiefs — 11.5 wins Pace: 17.0 wins | Over Looking good! | Under Looking bad! |
Raiders — 6.5 wins Pace: 3.8 wins | Over Looking bad! | Over Looking bad! |
Chargers — 8.5 wins Pace: 10.6 wins | Under Looking bad! | Over Looking good! |
Best Bet
Matt: Raiders over (Looking bad!)
Ah, they started out okay but have been collapsing in front of our eyes over the last few weeks. The biggest problem? Their stinky, awful quarterback trio. Minshew, O'Connell, and Ridder have all given it a shot and all failed pretty spectacularly. Their total is so low that all it takes is a few good weeks in a row to put it in play. But I don't see it.
Kirk: Raiders over (Looking bad!)
See above, AGAIN! Here's a analogy for myself and Matt.
You guess who is who.
Other Predictions
Playoff Picture
After 9 Weeks | Matt's 2024 Picks | Kirk's 2024 Picks | |
Number 1 Seed | Chiefs | Chiefs | Bengals |
Division Winners | Bills Steelers Texans | Bills Browns Colts | Jets Colts Chargers |
Wild Cards | Ravens Chargers Broncos | Texans Dolphins Raiders | Chiefs Bills Ravens |
Best QB on a New Team
We won't count Aaron Rodgers here, since technically he won't be making his New York Jets debut and would likely be the easy pick in this category. That leaves us with some limited choices here...
Brissett/Maye (NE), Wilson/Fields (PIT), Nix (DEN), Minshew (LV)
Matt: Wilson/Fields (PIT)
Kirk: Gardner Minshew (LV)
Seems like we were both wrong and the answer is Bo Nix? Although Drake Maye has been looking frisky despite his team being unwatchable. The jury is still out here.
Biggest Disappointment
Team that comes the furthest from exceeding their win total.
Matt: Bengals (trending towards missing their total by 2.9 wins)
The jury is still out here. If the Bengals continue trending up, they might not miss their number by too much. Meanwhile teams like the Jags, Jets, and Browns are poised to be pretty disappointing. Could be a photo finish. A photo of my butt.
Kirk: Steelers (trending towards beating their total by 4.3 wins)
Looks like I was wrong and Mike Tomlin is going to do it yet again. Props to him on not only having one of the best defenses, again, but for having the balls to bench Justin Fields at 4-2 and revitalize Russel Wilson's career. They can now have a balanced offense as the deep ball threat is very real.
Biggest Overachiever
Team that exceeds their win total by the biggest margin.
Matt: Colts (trending towards missing their total by 0.9 wins)
Nope. Can I re-pick? It's going to be the Chiefs. Why don't we just bet them every year to win the division? It's fucking easy money. As mentioned later, I only see like 2 hard games left on their schedule. We could legit be looking at a 17, 16, or 15-win team.
Kirk: Chargers (trending towards beating their total by 2.1 wins)
I forgot I made this pick and feel sick to my stomach I bet on a Harbutt team but here we are.
Matt's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
Davante Adams goes to the Chiefs ❌
Hahaha he went to the Jets instead. What a nerd.
The Patriots will go EITHER 4-1 and 1-4 over this stretch; nothing in between ✅
Spoiler alert: it was the shittier option.
Derrick Henry will reach 1000 rushing yards ✅
He's fucking running people over. It's great. He is going to be a monster in cold weather. If we ever get any cold weather ever again. Shit, we're doomed aren't we?
Matt's Three Predictions for Weeks 10-13
The Chiefs suffer their first loss
Week 11 at Buffalo is looking like a tough spot for Mahomes and company. I don't think we're looking at a 17-0 team and this seems like the most likely spot for them to drop a game. I don't see a game where they will be underdogs on the rest of their schedule, so things could get interesting if they don't lose one soon.
The Jets become relevant again by going 3-0 over this stretch
They were almost dead and buried after fumbling through the end zone Week 9 against the Texans. But they recovered and won the game. Now they go Cardinals, Colts, bye week, Seahawks. Clean sweep and back in contention. Yuck!
Mac Jones resurrects his career by upsetting either the Lions or Texans
I predict that Trevor Lawrence is done for the year after injuring his shoulder. He's "weighing his options" but why would he come back and play for his silly little coach on a 2-7 team? Mac Jones will take over, probably get the shit kicked out of him Week 10 against the Vikings, but then I'm betting he upsets the Lions in Week 11 or the Texans in Week 13 coming off a bye.
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 5-9
The Chargers will go 2-3 over this stretch and lose their starting QB to injury ❌
AGAIN MATT, with my dyslexia I meant to type that they would go 3-2, which they did. Stop the hatred and think about your kids.
Joe Flacco will bring this shitty Colts team into prime position for the playoffs ❌
My hope for old glory was pure nostalgia porn. My friend Tom is currently staring at me as I write this, and he is so, so ashamed.
The Jets will implode in hilarious fashion ✅
Kirk's Three Predictions for Weeks 10-13
The Bills absolutely dominate and go 4-0 to take an insurmountable lead in the AFC East.
The Raiders, Jags, Bengals....AND THE DOLPHINS...will all fire their head coaches.
This may not technically fit in the week 10-13 window. But I'm calling the shot. At least a couple of these clowns should be done in the next two weeks. I don't think Zac Taylor is a bad coach but someone's got to pay the price for wasting a prime Joe Burrow year.
Aaron Rodgers will keep throwing his team under the bus and then retire before the season is over and take a place in the new administration as lead asshole in charge of smugness.
No notes.