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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to another season of Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must drive to the State Diner in Ithaca, NY and eat a bowl of chicken and rice soup alone.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get these picks over with so we can go back to watching MSNBC and sobbing.
Matt's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$50.20 last week -$276.85 for the season
Sigh.
Here is my best attempt to make some better predictions than Ann Selzer.
Colts (+3.5)
Straight up ATS (-105)
Let's buy low on the Colts who looked bad against a solid Vikings team in prime time. Conversely, we can sell high on the Bills who basically have the AFC East locked up with a 4-game lead over the Jets. The Bills looked vulnerable against the Dolphins, especially up the middle. The Colts will pound the ball with Jonathan Taylor and hopefully keep the score close. Factor in that the Bills could be looking ahead to next week's matchup against the arch rival Chiefs.
💰 $20.00 to win $19.05
Saints (+3.5)
Straight up ATS (-105)
I like the new coach bounce and I like getting the hook as a home underdog in the division. Teams are 22-17 ATS (56%) after firing their coach midseason. Nobody is lining up to bet the Saints after they've lost 7 in a row and will be without Chris Olave to injury. But c'mon, it's the NFC South. These teams always just play mediocre, close contests. Derek Carr, the discarded croissant of the NFL, will be playing for pride here. I hear he's been applying extra eyeliner and listening to a lot of The Smiths records since election night. He'll be ready.
💰 $20.00 to win $19.05
Chargers (-7.5)
Straight up ATS (-105)
The Titans absolutely stink. They needed overtime to beat an atrocious New England team at home last week. Now they will head west to face an under-the-radar (read: boring) Chargers team that has just been quietly taking care of business and sits at 5-3 riding a 2-game win streak. Fading bad teams after overtime games is a winning strategy and we're gonna put some money on the younger Harbutt and the resurgent Herbert to get it done.
💰 $20.00 to win $19.05
Steelers (+2.5)
Straight up ATS (-104)
It's time to do our favorite thing... bet Mike Tomlin as a road underdog! He's 61% ATS in that situation, which makes him the most profitable coach in NFL history (probably). He's also 26-6 straight up in his career against rookie QBs, which does not bode well for our boy Jayden Daniels. You guys know that me and Kirk are loving the Commanders, but now that they've already cashed our over 6.5 win total bet for the season, it's time that they come back to earth a little bit against a great Pittsburgh defense.
💰 $20.00 to win $19.23
49ers (-6.5)
Straight up ATS (-105)
If they are gonna go on a run and start to look like the San Francisco dream team that we were all expecting prior to the year, then now is the time. They are a solid, well-coached team coming off a bye to play a banged up Bucs team. Yes, Tampa looked good on Monday night, holding their own against the Chiefs without their top two offensive weapons. But now they are playing on short rest after a Monday night overtime game against a well-rested 49ers squad. Baker Mayfield also popped up on the injury report this week, so it seems like Tampa's quite banged up after facing the brutal Chiefs defense just six days ago. Plus, McCaffrey looks like he will probably be back for this game. He probably won't get too many snaps, but that has to be a motivating factor for a team that had a brutal first half of the season.
💰 $20.00 to win $19.05
Tyrod's Take
ay yo, what up ill crew? it's ya boy tyrod comin at ya this week from deep inside downtown gilead, also known as maricopa county to the locals. we'll be takin on the red hot cardinals this week and i have to say i'm a bit concerned. aaron has been down in the lobby bar with elon musk, woody johnson, joe rogan, the winklevoss twins, eric trump, and jason aldean for about 30 straight hours. you should see those guys dance. they're so pale, sad, and spineless they look like white women headin to the polls.
every time i think the party is startin to slow down, aldean grabs a can of ready whip from his guitar case and they all go into the bathroom for a few minutes and come out even more rambunctious and incoherent than before. rfk jr even stopped by to give the team their pregame injections of ivermectin, lion's mane purée, and cbd oil. he sounds like leonard cohen inhaled a helium balloon. i took a pass on his mystery shot since i already had one quack doctor cost me a job back in san diego. the boys gave me some shit for sittin it out, but they went back to playin darts with dr. fauci's face and sharin their lastpass logins with putin pretty soon after.
anyways, i hope ya jabronis win some money this week. we could all probably use a little good news. but i guess with all the dough ya gonna save on eggs under the maga economy, ya can afford to be a little more risky with ya picks. silver linins and what not.
irregardless, i gotta go back to loadin up season 2 of handmaid's tale onto my microsoft surface. i tried to buy the dvds on amazon but bezos said it was too polarizin and decided not to pick a side. democracy dies with two-day shippin or some shit. take care of ya selves and if ya can spare it, take care of somebody else too. gotta go hold davante's dreads back while he pukes up this kennedy cocktail. peace!
Kirk's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$107.00 last week -$423.02. for the season
Time to bust out of this gambling hole I've dug for myself with the finesse I exhibit on a daily basis in piloting this disaster of a body.
(except I'm filled with the blood of my enemies and not a refreshing soft drink)
I'm Using My 'One Time' This Time For Parlay Time (+431)
Bills ML, Steelers/Commanders Over 44.5, Eagles/Cowboys Over 42.5
I'm $423.02 in the hole this season. So naturally I've decided to find a parlay that will pay me as close as possible to that total. I'm seeing the Matrix you guys.
This is a simple lesson in looking at the board, hating the matchups and spreads, hating every single pick anyway, and going for the long shot. Plus as noted by our Bonus Bets we've been hitting those back to back all of the last two weeks so I feel unstoppable.
If you do the math it's really quite simple.
As much as I dislike the Bills for a reason I can't put a finger on they are good. A feisty Dolphins team pushed them to the limit last week and they still handled business and gave confidence to their kicker, Tyler Bass, trusting him with a huge game winning FG. I note that as I like them to at least beat a Colts team with old man Flacco whose magic has run out by 3. ML will keep me from having nightmares for at least one more night.
I love the Commanders. They hit my futures bet right away, wham, bam, thank you mam. While I like them to win this game I feel karmically that it is a mistake to take them here. I'll take the low total as this is a 1PM game, they've been averaging 29.2 PPG and the Steelers revamped offense has managed to get up to 23.4 PPG.
For the Eagles and Cowboys I actually hesitated for a long period and debated taking the Cowboys +7 for a divisional game. I just couldn't do it. Nick Sirianni is a terrible coach but I really think the Cowboys blow ass. I think Hurts has a chance to do some damage to their weakened defensive unit and I like Dak to hurl the ball leading into either a long TD pass to CD Lamb or some pick 6 opportunities over the middle of the field.
Overs are up! Offenses have finally started to click and maybe, just maybe, I'll hit a bet when I need it most 'One Time'.
💰 $100.00 to win $431.02
Bonus Bet
+$575.00 last week +$935.00 for the season
We're gonna try to keep the magic alive. Here's the thing though. Kirk is traveling back from a work trip, so we might not get this article posted until Friday morning. But here's what we are putting in for Thursday night. I'll attach the bet slip and also post this to Threads (fuck off, Elon) so that you know we aren't cheating.
Same Game Parlay (+395)
Joe Burrow 2+ passing touchdowns
Ja'Marr Chase 70+ receiving yards
Lamar Jackson 200+ passing yards
Diontae Johnson 25+ receiving yards
💰 $100.00 to win $395.00
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!