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Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to Oddball! Our weekly NFL gambling competition. The rules are simple:
We each get $100 to make NFL bets every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
We'll post our picks every Thursday and recap how we did every Tuesday.
We can only bet on stuff that will be resolved during the week (no futures).
Loser must eat an entire well-done steak at Applebee's.
Any profit you make in a given week can be banked and used later. Any portion of the $100 that you don't lose, cannot be used later but does count towards your overall total for the season.
Now that the rules preamble is over, let's get to the picks.
Matt's Picks
$151.01 available to bet this week +$51.01 last week +$135.99 for the season
Here we are again for another exciting week of football, as the NFL heads into the final month of the season. Tonight, they'll try to kill Al Michaels again with a game featuring Easton Stick, Aidan O'Connell, an interim coach, and a corpse of a coach. But things should get better from there with a Saturday afternoon triple-header that is sure to get you yelled at by your family for not spending any time with them.
On that note, let's kick off this week's picks.
Saturday "Neglect Your Family" Teaser (-134)
Steelers +7.5 Broncos +10.5
Saturday games are weird, so let's get weird with a teaser right off the bat. First let's take the Steelers who looked basically dead on Thursday against the Pats. Everyone will be off of this train, but I'm a firm believer that if you ever have an opportunity to take Mitch Trubisky in a teaser, you have to do it. In all seriousness, I love Tomlin as a dog, I still don't believe in the Colts, and T.J. Watt will be back in action for Pittsburgh. Give me the points.
Then let's take the Broncos up to double digits. The Lions defense has been quite shaky lately, so I expect Denver to be able to score enough points to keep this within a touchdown or so. Hopefully Uncle Jack's least favorite quarterback will continue to underwhelm even though he is back indoors where his small hands aren't impacted as much.
💰 $66.66 to win $50.00
Panthers +3.0
Straight up ATS (-115)
Yes, the Panthers are bad. But I just can't get behind Desmond Ridder being favored on the road in a divisional game. These are the ugly, stinky picks that I love to take. Who in the world is going to bet the Panthers this week? That will mean the sportsbooks will clean up with a Carolina cover, and I like being on the same side as those bastards.
💰 $23.00 to win $20.00
Bears +3.0
Straight up ATS (-104)
We have to keep riding a rejuventated Justin Fields who will have something to prove the rest of the way this season. The Bears own Carolina's draft pick, which is looking like it will be first overall. The talk all week has been about if they should draft Fields' replacement or keep him around. He will do just enough to convince them to pay up, then suck ass at the beginning of the year, get hurt, and eventually turn the reigns over to a paisan who lives with his parents in Jersey... oh shit wait, that was Daniel Jones.
💰 $26.00 to win $25.00
Bills -1.5
Straight up ATS (-115)
On Tuesday morning after a win by the Bills and a loss by the Dolphins, I bet the Bills to win the AFC East (+330) and Josh Allen to win MVP (+1400). The run begins now.
As mentioned in the Week 14 recap, I just don't really think the Cowboys have much reason to go all out down the stretch. They are chasing the Eagles, who have a cakewalk of a schedule. Now they have to fly up to freezing cold Buffalo and play a completely revved up Bills team who is starting to believe they have a real shot? No thanks.
I think it's time to fade the Cowboys and jump on the Bills bandwagon.
💰 $23.00 to win $20.00
Upset Moneyline Parlays
49ers / Patriots MLP ($5.00 to win $19.19) 49ers / Jets MLP ($5.00 to win $19.75) 49ers / Jets / Patriots MLP ($2.35 to win $47.67)
I had a few bucks leftover to mess around with, so I'm sprinkling a taste on a few moneyline parlays. I sincerely think that the Jets and Pats both have a shot to win outright.
For the Jets, Zach Wilson actually looked good (?) last week and is firmly in "nothing to lose" territory. Their defense was also flying around in the pouring rain and definitely looked impressive. As we saw against the Titans, the Dolphins are mortal — especially if Tyreek is limited by injury.
For the Pats, Bailey Zappe was so pumped up on Thursday night that it almost made the game exciting. Their defense is only giving up 11 points per game over the last month and should have no problem containing Kansas City's worthless cast of receivers. The Mahomes Kelce pissed off revenge game is definitely in play, but could also work to our advantage. Are they overly emotional and trying to force things against an inferior opponent? We'll see!
I paired both of these long shots up with the biggest favorite on the board (San Francisco) just to juice the odds a bit. So watch the Niners get tripped up while the Jets and Patriots pull off the impossible. That would be par for the course!
Kirk's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$20.00 last week -$763.51 for the season
With one of my bets actually hitting I only posted a measly $20.00 loss last week and I feel the need to get back to my roots.
TIME TO POUR ON THE LOSSES BABY! FADE IT!
Bengals -2.5
Straight up ATS (-122)
The Vikings are bringing out their backup Nick Mullens after Josh Dobbs soared to the stars only to crash directly into a dung heap.
With their current QB situation unraveling these past few weeks I begrudgingly give the injured Kirk Cousins much more credit (and after watching that Netflix documentary Quarterback). Seems like a tough dude who actually is super accurate and clutch. He's been cursed with the most unclutch defenses in his tenure in the big ol' Min in his time there. Could that be because his rampant zeal for God has taken away from the prayers and offerings due to the Football Gods? Who can say!
Not my place surely! I certainly haven't been dropped here as an agent of the Football Gods to remind the weak minded athletes and gamblers of their responsibilities.
Anywho, I like what we've seen out of Jake Browning in his past 2 starts and the team is clearly rallying around his play now that they realize he doesn't suck ass.
With the fact that they'll be playing at home and in cold weather, I like the points here.
💰 $90.00 to win $73.77
Multigame Moneyline Parlay (+2108)
Giants +225, Dolphins -430, Patriots +310, Rams -290
Let's review this carefully curated selection:
Giants: Italian QB
Dolphins: Embarassed last week and getting a home game against a (checks notes) a cocky Zach Wilson.
Patriots: Incoming Chiefs headcoach and QB have directly angered the aforementioned Football Gods with their whinery. Burn!
Rams: Team is playing well and I'm betting on them making the playoffs.
Plus I've only got a handful of weeks left for some of these long shots to hit and possibly claw back a bit of my losses this abysmal year.
💰 $10.00 to win $210.87
Bonus Pick
$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week +509.13 for the season
It's the Easton Stick Bowl! PRAY FOR AL MICHAELS!
Austin Ekeler over 2.5 receptions
Michael Mayer over 1.5 receptions
Jakobi Meyers over 24.5 receiving yards
💰 $100.00 to win $135.30
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!
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