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Oddball 2026: Week 1 NFL Bets
Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.
Welcome back to YEAR 4 of the best low-stakes, low-expertise NFL gambling contest on the internet. If four years sounds like a crazy amount of time to keep this site going, just imagine how our wives feel!
Anyway, football is FINALLY back.
Congratulations on surviving an offseason that involved Sam Darnold hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, Kash Patel turning an Olympic locker room into a taxpayer-funded Sigma Chi kegger, tariffs getting murdered and resurrected more times than Michael Myers, the Knicks pulling off the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history, Trump hiding in a catering truck, the Artemis II crew orbiting the moon, gas costing more per gallon than the table minimums at the Borgata, crypto pump-and-dumps galore, the beginning of the AI apocalypse, European heat waves, wildfires, Uncle Jack’s opinions about the WNBA, the SpaceX IPO, diarrhea lettuce, The Odyssey, the World Cup, and probably two dozen more current events so dumb we had to go back to drinking Evan Williams just to forget them.
We didn’t start the fire. We did, however, tease it with the over.
Our rules are simple:
Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
Picks go up Thursday, along with recaps of the previous week.
Only bets that resolve that week are allowed. No futures.
The loser must watch an entire playoff game alone at Outback Steakhouse in a suit and tie, order a Bloomin’ Onion for one, and tell the server he’s celebrating something special.
Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Whatever portion of the weekly $100 survives stays in your season total, but that original stake can’t be wagered again.
Now that the preamble is over, let’s get to the picks.
Matt's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week +$0.00 last week +$0.00 for the season
I told Kirk I wouldn’t be as verbose as usual this week because of a crazy work schedule. Then I wrote a 250-word intro that required me to reread six months’ worth of news headlines, so we’re off to an incredibly efficient start!
I’ll jump right into the picks, but first, a big shoutout to friend-of-the-site Tyrod Taylor, who is fulfilling every Virginia boy's dream of spending a winter in Wisconsin. Ya boy is QB2 for the Packers this year, so prayers up to Taranis that Jordan Love’s ligaments remain firmly attached to his body. An injury would be devastating for Green Bay and, more importantly, interrupt Tyrod’s Widow’s Bay rewatch like Patricia crashing book club.
Seahawks (-3.5)
Straight up ATS (-102)
You won’t see me picking many primetime games. I generally prefer losing money on whatever disgusting NFC South showdown is airing in the early window on Sunday. But it’s been a long offseason, and I need to wet my whistle tonight.
We just watched the Seahawks manhandle the Patriots in February, and I see no compelling reason the rematch should be any different. I was all over Seattle in the Super Bowl, enough to win my own 80-entry prop pool and have the entire population of Manayunk ready to string me up for collusion. Mike Vrabel’s offseason extracurriculars and A.J. Brown’s annual airing of grievances haven’t done enough to change my tune.
Give me the defending champs at home in the opener. Blindly repeating what worked 213 days ago is a sustainable gambling strategy.
💰$25.00 to win $24.51
49ers (+3.5)
Straight up ATS (-102)
Last month, one of my marketing clients was acquired by a company based in Brisbane, so a large contingent of the staff had to fly over there for two weeks of onboarding. They looked like literal zombies on Zoom for at least four days.
The overhyped Rams are planning to fly into Melbourne just 24 hours before their Week 1 opener against a division rival. They’re treating a 16-hour, 8000-mile journey like a day trip up the 405. The time difference is so fucked that, to arrive Thursday morning (the day before the game) the Rams have to leave Los Angeles on Tuesday night! Think about how bad you felt the last time you flew cross-country and had to get up the next morning to go to the gym. Now imagine the gym holds 100,000 people and Fred Warner is waiting to tackle you into the squat rack.
That said, I don’t hate the Rams’ long-term thinking. They have a loaded roster with Super Bowl aspirations. Why spend two weeks eating Vegemite, living among kangaroos, watching the toilet water spin in the wrong direction, and scrambling your internal clock for the first month of the season? I get it. But long-term thinking doesn’t cover short-term spreads.
I’ll take the points with the Niners, whose soft tissue has temporarily ventured beyond the reach of that godforsaken electrical substation.
💰$25.00 to win $24.51
Bucs (+3.5)
Straight up ATS (-105)
Zac Taylor is 3-11 in the first two weeks of the season. The man has barely had time to rinse the Maui sand out of his loafers. I’ll be fading the Bengals until his suntan fades.
💰$25.00 to win $23.81
6-Point Teaser (-134)
Texans +7.5 Packers +7.5
It wouldn’t be Oddball without a teaser that I “almost win,” definitely regret, and spend all Monday explaining was actually the right bet. Here's one that pairs two solid teams I'm surprised are underdogs.
The Texans host the Bills in the early window Sunday, and I’m hoping they look like the team that closed last season on a 12-2 heater and crushed the Steelers 30-6 in the playoffs. Houston’s defense was so good that it won that Wild Card game by 24 even though its quarterback put the ball on the ground five times. Facing Josh Allen is always terrifying, but I think the Texans can contain him enough to keep this close, if not win outright.
The Packers head to Minnesota to face the NFL’s most obnoxious crypto bro, Kevin O’Connell. For some reason, people are excited about the Vikings handing their offense to all 5-foot-10 of Kyler Murray and his winless playoff résumé. I am not one of those people. KOC should liquidate his Fartcoin holdings and wager the proceeds on himself to be the first coach fired (+1800 on Kalshi).
Give me Houston, the Cheeseheads, and another uninterrupted afternoon of television for Tyrod Taylor! This feels incredibly safe, which is usually when the floor opens beneath me and I wind up in the sunken place.
💰$20.00 to win $15.00
Buzz, Your Girlfriend! Woof! Parlay (+1115)
Panthers ML Jets ML Dolphins ML
Just a decrepit, odorous preview of the ugly wagers to come this season on Oddball. Here are three teams everyone spent the offseason dragging through the mud, all of whom have very winnable Week 1 games.
The Panthers get the mega-regression candidate Chicago Bears in the Carolina heat. Maybe Bryce Young and his merry band of misfits found something during those wonderful 50 minutes of playoff football they played against the Rams in the Wild Card round. I could definitely see them pulling off the upset at home.
The Jets will probably stink as usual, but have you seen Cam Ward’s preseason tape? That man should not be favored against anyone. I think Geno Smith delivers a nice, professional, taking-care-of-business performance in Nashville and gets WFAN callers debating playoff seeding before Jordan Love comes to town in Week 2 and sprays shit all over the Meadowlands with his saxophone.
And finally, the Dolphins: everyone’s pick to be the worst team in football. At this very moment, people across the country are getting cute and taking the Raiders in their knockout pools. But how could anyone trust Kirk Cousins and the flipping Raiders in Week 1? This has all the makings of a fun upset followed by 13 or 14 consecutive losses for Miami Malik.
Yep, 11-to-1 on three teams everyone hates. Welcome back to Oddball, folks!
💰$5.00 to win $55.79
Kirk's Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week +$0.00 last week +$0.00 for the season
Boy Howdy! Buckle up, it's time for another season of Oddball with your boy going for the 3-peat.
To simulate and account for all the new ways I can screw over Matt this year I've being putting some prep work in.
Now week 1 is a historic crap shoot so I'm just going to bite off a little appetizer.
As you all know, I need to build my bankroll up a bit to fully fund my degeneracy and get this boulder rolling downhill.
I'll Dip My Toe In (+164)
Matthew Stafford 2+ Passing TDs
Myles Garret to Record a Sack
I have no idea how week one results will shake out, and I'm big enough to admit that.
What I do know is this:
Matthew Stafford continues to defy time.
Myles Garret looks ready to destroy everything in front of him.
As an Eagles fan I am glad that our matchup is in Week 4 and at home. This is a team that continues to impress each year and when we did beat them enroute to a Super Bowl victory it was by the skin of our teeth. I fully expect to get punched in the mouth by their D-line and woe to any who think it won't be coming to them.
Videos of Garret's physical prowess have me convinced the Rams social team is using AI. Pair him with Aaron Donald, and namely a real QB, coach, and top to bottom contender for once? Watch out as I think his peak will now fully be reached.
Plus, this game opens in Australia so let's have some fun.
I expect the curse of Taranis to be in full swing!
💰$100.00 to win $164.03
Bonus Bet
$100.00 available to bet this week +$0.00 last week +$0.00 for the season
Note: Not part of the weekly totals. This is a brotherhood bet, a ritual sacrifice to Taranis so he doesn't smite us both.
Last year our cooperative parlay bets were god fucking awful.
Which is great news as there is nowhere to go but up!! We're going to make the 2026-2027 season our bitch! Nothing can go wrong!
I am so happy football is back. I'm feeling invincible.
I'm feeling:
Same-Game Parlay (+291)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ATS
Seattle Seabirds ML
Darnold 200+ Yards
💰 $100.00 to win $291.40
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!
