Oddball: Week 11 NFL Bets

Ill & Odd
Nov 13
6 min read

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

kirk is emotionally checked out of this season

Kirk whipped out his nuts and dropped them all over the place last week. Now he has a huge bankroll and only trails by $72. Things have definitely gotten more interesting. Who will be feeling the pressure more? Matt, who was cruising through the first 9 weeks of the season until hitting a brick wall in November — or Kirk, who could be starting to sweat knowing he has a big opportunity here to capitalize or squander. Stay tuned!

Our rules are simple:

Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.
Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).
Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, let’s get to the picks — hopefully they have a better week than the New York Giants.

Matt's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$53.26 last week +$58.24 for the season

I’ve been walking around all week more hobbled and dazed than Jaxson Dart. I don’t know what karmic sin I committed over the past two weeks, but it has been a full-blown debacle. I can practically feel that tall, bespectacled shadow creeping up behind me in the standings, and I don’t like it one bit. I need to find some wins on the board this week or I’ll be staring down a long, miserable January filled with nothing but undressed arugula and cloning my pets.

Rams (-3.0)

Straight Up ATS (-110)

The Rams will host the Seahawks this week in an incredible battle between the NFC West’s top teams. Both squads roll in at 7-2, playing great ball. But let me rewind the clock back to January 13th — the last time Sam Darnold stared down this Rams defense. His uniform was a different color then, a majestic shade of Vikings purple, but the results were butt ugly. Darnold got sacked nine times, coughed it up twice, and lost 27-9 in a game that basically chased him straight out of Minnesota. You think Sean McVay might have the book on Darnold?

Couple that with the fact that Seattle has spent the past two weeks getting smoke blown up their asses for demolishing the Cardinals and Commanders. I think they’re a little overvalued. The Rams are riding an MVP-caliber season from Matthew Stafford and have positioned themselves to grab the top seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. And the Rams’ recent habit of deploying all four of their talented tight ends should be a nightmare for Seattle, who’ve surrendered 656 yards to opposing tight ends this season — worst in the league.

Give me the Rams with their proven quarterback at home against the overconfident Seahawks and their signal-caller who always feels one bad read away from a full-blown meltdown.

💰$44.00 to win $40.00

Bengals (+5.5)

Straight Up ATS (-108)

Ahh, two geriatric quarterbacks pretending they’re still in the playoff hunt. But hey, their last meeting on November 7th was actually pretty fun! That was when Flacco made his Cincinnati debut and carved up the Steelers’ secondary like a holiday ham. And that was before Pittsburgh’s cornerback room turned into a full-on MASH unit.

Meanwhile, the Bengals just got a week of rest, have stabilized with Flacco, and suddenly believe they can hang around long enough for Burrow to ride back in like a turtleneck-clad cowboy in Week 13.

Cincinnati’s outside receivers should be able to do whatever they want against whoever is left in the Steelers’ defensive backfield. The Steelers had to move Jalen Ramsey to safety because they literally ran out of humans who can cover. And now those same guys are supposed to hold up against Chase and Higgins in space?

Give me the Bengals — the team with the explosive playmakers — to outscore a Steelers squad whose quarterback is one more Calvin Austin drop away from throwing a full-blown temper tantrum on the sideline.

💰$43.20 to win $40.00

Moneyline Parlay (+929)

Giants & Panthers

Listen, I have to back my main man Jameis Winston. I fully acknowledge he’s just as likely to lose this game by 28 points as he is to win it — that’s part of the charm. But don’t count the Giants out completely. There’s real new-coach-bounce potential here, especially because Mike Kafka is an actual head-coaching candidate, not some lame-duck interim hall monitor. He’ll be calling plays for Jameis, who loves nothing more than to drop back and let it fly. If the Giants’ collection of no-name receivers can come down with a couple of those moonshot deep balls, we absolutely have a chance to upset Hammermill Love and his totally inconsistent Packers.

I also like the Panthers as a live dog this week. They’re taking on the Falcons, who just survived a brutal overtime slog in BERLIN. There’s simply no way that defense isn’t still feeling the effects of getting steamrolled by Jonathan Taylor for 70 minutes and then being forced to cram into a tin can and fly across the Atlantic. And let’s not pretend this matchup is some mystery. We already watched the Panthers shut out the Falcons 30-0 back in September. Would it really shock you if they completed the sweep against shaky Penix and clueless Raheem?

💰$6.40 to win $59.49

Another Moneyline Parlay (+705)

Bengals & Panthers

Already made the case for both of these, so I won’t rehash it. Some might say putting Joe Flacco and Bryce Young into multiple wagers in the same week qualifies as unhinged behavior. And to those people I say… well, you might have a point. But in the immortal words of friend-of-the-site Young Jeezy, “Scared money don’t make money.”

Enjoy Week 11!

💰$6.40 to win $45.13

Kirk's Picks

$685.43 available to bet this week +585.43 last week -$14.57 for the season

Matt thinks I'm sweating with a larger pool to gamble with on the table this week from my long overdue win.

Little does he know I follow the creed of the great Lt. Spiers.

Lt Spiers from HBO's Band of Brothers — "The only hope you have is to accept the fact that you're already dead."

The exact, exact, principle applies to gambling funds as it does combat. These dollars are gone, will come again, and will go. Until the Sun sets in the East and the Moon falls into the Pacific. Forever.

And plus, it would be fun to crush Matt like last year so I'm going all out.

AFC Juggsernauts Parlay (-125)

Kansas City ML, Ravens ML

Let's start out with a solid base before going buck wild the rest of the night. Got to line the stomach with some protein and carbs before attempting to drink the town dry.

Bo Nix is awful - ass. I was a Boliever last year, but his moxie has waned.
The Browns.

💰$385.43 to win $310.60

I Hate The Steelers (-108)

Bengals +5.5

I've bet on the Steelers and lost twice. They are not home dogs this week and old man Rodgers has proved he's not old man Stafford. Even against the abysmal Bengals defense I think his regression is confirmed. Got to hope coming off a bye and the offense calling the defense straight up doo-doo, they will attempt to redeem themselves.

Really this is an anti Rodgers bet and that's it if I'm being honest.

💰$100.00 to win $92.59

Color Me Intrigued Parlay (+634)

Fins -2.5, Bears +2.5, Bolts -3.0

Dolphins have been playing hard for "dead man walking" HC McDaniel. Offense looks good. Achane looks unstoppable. Commanders defense is currently looking for the blue plate special around town.
J.J. McCarthy. Ben Johnson. Battlestar Galactica.
Trevor Lawerence Fumble Bananza incoming.

💰$100.00 to win $634.12