Oddball: Week 12 NFL Bets

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

Today's edition of Oddball is coming to you live from the Arctic Tundra, where our picks have turned into a giant block of ice! Even though Matt has a $600+ lead over Kirk, nothing really feels like winning when we got swept off the board last week. Let's see if we can thaw things out in Week 12.

Our rules are simple:

• Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.

• We must bet the entire $100.

• Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.

• Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).

• Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, let’s get to the picks — maybe there's even a winner in here somewhere.

Matt's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$41.76 for the season

I'd first like to thank my opponent, Mr. Kirk McCready, for losing his entire $685.43 bankroll last week. I was really sweating my chances in this competition before that face plant. However, I'll give respect where respect is due. I probably would have put all of it on the Patriots moneyline at -1100 to win $62.00. But my tall friend is much too honorable for that.

This week, I'm going to change things up a bit and try to change the mojo. So here it is, the winning Week 12 selection...

Adjusted Line Parlay (+118)

Lions (-5.5) Seahawks (-5.5) Saints (+7.5)

Let's start in Detroit, where my beloved New York Giants are about to get fed into the wood chipper and sprayed all over 8 Mile Road. I love this team, but let's be honest. They're done, man. They've lost Malik Nabers, Jaxson Dart, and Cam Skattebo to injury. They fired their inept head coach. They can't seem to find a healthy kicker. Their third-round receiver is giving up on routes in the end zone. Their first round linebacker is sleeping through meetings. Their defense cannot stop the run under any circumstances. It's just horrible. Now they head out of town to play the Lions, whose offense just got embarrassed on national television. Dan Campbell’s Lions are 8-0 ATS as a home favorite after a loss. They’re fast, they’re physical, they run the ball down your throat, and they feast on bad teams in their own building. Giants don’t stand a chance here.

Speaking of done, the Tennessee Titans are 1-9 and have scored an NFL-worst 14.3 points per game this season. Their offense is making the Eagles look like an exciting football team. How many points are they realistically putting up on a Seattle defense that’s been absolutely smothering opponents? The Seahawks nearly won a road game even though their quarterback turned the ball over four times. That’s how dominant their defense is. Sam Darnold gets a dream bounce-back spot here against a Titans team in a heated tank-off with the Giants for the first pick in the 2026 draft. Seattle by a bunch.

And you know who else is cooked? The Falcons. And maybe Michael Penix’s career, if we’re being brutally honest. Three ACL tears? At that point, your knees aren’t ligaments anymore, they’re more like beef jerky. Enter Kirk Cousins, who hasn’t started since October 26th, when he put up 173 ineffective yards in a loss to the lowly Dolphins. Now he gets to do it without Drake London, who unfortunately is also dragging my fantasy season down with him. Fun! The Saints should win outright, but we’ll take the extra cushion at +7.5 because trusting Tyler Shough with your money is like trusting Uncle Jack to behave at Thanksgiving with the Epstein Files in the news and Jared Goof on the TV. Not gonna happen.

💰$100.00 to win $118.68

Kirk's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$685.43 last week -$700.00 for the season

HEYO IT'S YOUR BOY

Let's Try That Again Parlay (+541)

Packers -6.5, Rams -6.5, Steelers @ Bears Over 44.5

I've fallen into holes before, luckily for me there's usually a shovel already down there.

Jokes aside from last week, besides karma, I realize I lost because I held on to biases too long. The Chiefs being inevitable. The Jaguars being dog shit. Time to reevaluate in the moment and read the room I am actually standing in. No more old man shit!

1. It's not old man shit to admit I was right about J.J. McCarthy being a joke of a QB. That part of my 3 part parlay was easy last week. While I have my doubts about Green Bay I think playing in the Shrine of Cheese in cold weather will be enough to make '9' crumble.

2. I like Baker Mayfield, and I am trepidatious with this bet. But they just haven't looked right (injuries decimating a team will do that) and as others have speculated, maybe Baker is playing hurt. He hasn't had the explosiveness on the ground to get gains with his legs as much as the early part of the season. Matt Stafford and the Rams seemed to have removed all cobwebs from October and are humming as Superbowl favorites. A hair under a TD, sure sign me up to lay the points.

3. I think between the Bears clearly giving a shit and believing in themselves, when no one else does, and a Mason Rudolph/Case Keenum contract situation game here, the points will be on.

💰$100.00 to win $541.67

Bonus Bet

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$729.86 for the season

Note: Not part of the weekly totals. This is a brotherhood bet, a ritual sacrifice to Taranis so he doesn't smite us both.

Unrelated to this bet, but this week we learned that our friend Jake had never heard of or seen the hawk tuah girl. How is that even possible? Anyway, here's another feeble attempt at making up some ground.

Same Game Parlay (+562)

• Josh Allen ATS

• Josh Allen Under 222.50 Yards

• James Cook ATS

💰 $100.00 to win $562.55

Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!