Oddball: Week 13 NFL Bets

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

Happy Thanksgiving! Let's mash some parlays and stuff some FanDuel accounts together to celebrate. Kirk has a huge bankroll to play with this week. Let's see if he puts it to good use or takes after his Philadelphia Eagles and squanders it away.

Our rules are simple:

• Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.

• We must bet the entire $100.

• Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.

• Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).

• Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, can you pass the gravy?

Matt's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$141.76 for the season

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Be sure to follow us on Threads this weekend, where I'll be live streaming a log of Uncle Jack's minute-by-minute food consumption, farfetched conspiracies, and baseless conjecture about who is really in the Epstein Files. The over/under is 2.5 pounds of dark meat, 6.5 mentions of George Soros, and at least one claim that too much pumpkin pie is making high school athletes asexual. Wish me luck!

Eagles (-7.0)

Straight Up ATS (+100)

Now seems like the perfect time to back the Eagles, just when WIP talk radio in Philly starts sounding like a suicide hotline. I like betting on good teams to bounce back after an embarrassing loss, and boy does last week's choke job against the Cowboys qualify. Also, I know that my esteemed counterpart will not be betting on the Eagles because he is under strict orders from his wife to not ruin the holiday weekend. That alone gives me a psychological edge Vegas can’t price in.

The Bears have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, which should give Jalen Hurts plenty of time and Saquon Barkley an opportunity to roll back the clock to 2024. On the other side, Caleb Williams has yet to beat a truly elite defense. His habit of holding onto the ball for too long will be a brutal fit against a Philadelphia front that treats indecisive quarterbacks like a piñata at a toddler’s birthday party. And let’s not ignore the biggest red flag: the Bears are 8-3 with a negative point differential, which is the football equivalent of someone bragging about buying the Hawk Tuah girl's meme coin. Regression is coming. It starts Friday, in Philadelphia, in front of a crowd that may boo Santa but knows a mismatch when they see one.

💰$25.00 to win $25.00

Bucs (-3.0)

Straight Up ATS (-118)

It’s always a little dicey making picks on a Wednesday without much injury news. But so far it looks like Baker Mayfield’s shoulder is a sprain, not a catastrophe. That means there’s a real shot he plays Sunday. And if he doesn’t? Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater steps in, which is basically the backup-QB equivalent of finding a $20 bill in an old coat pocket. Teddy is a certified cover machine, and the market’s reaction to him was laughably dramatic — moving the line from 5.5 down to 3.0 like we were swapping in Nathan Peterman instead of one of the league’s most competent fill-ins. Also, I feel spiritually obligated to bet on Teddy Thanksgiving weekend, mostly because Uncle Jack has confused him with friend-of-the-site Tyrod Taylor roughly 14 times since 2021.

On the bright side for Tampa, Bucky Irving appears ready to return after being shelved since September, and the Bucs’ recent slide feels wildly overstated. Losing to the Patriots, Bills, and Rams isn’t exactly a walk through the gift shop, and they did it with Baker running on one functional shoulder. Now they draw the Cardinals, who have been in a turkey-coma all season. This is exactly the kind of spot where a solid team reminds everyone they’re not dead. Sign me up for a Tampa bounce-back.

💰$25.00 to win $21.19

Browns (+5.5)

Straight Up ATS (-120)

The Browns have been sneaky good at home this season. They lost by a point to the Bengals, beat the Packers, lost by four to the Vikings, blew out the Dolphins, and hung with the Ravens. They covered all of those matchups thanks to a defense that plays like it’s fueled by the collective frustration of every Browns fan since 1999. And now they get to rally behind Myles Garrett, who is on pace to break the NFL single-season sack record. Sorry to my man Michael Strahan, but Garrett looks ready to snatch that record the way Strahan once “snatched” that sack from Favre.

On the other side, Brock Purdy just threw three picks and looked like he was rebooting beta firmware on Monday night. The Browns have the talent to bottle up the run, keep the ball out of McCaffrey’s hands, and force Purdy to win the game himself. Can he do it? Maybe. Do I trust injury-riddled San Francisco on the road to do it? Absolutely not.

…Wait… am I becoming a Shedeur Sanders fan?

💰$25.00 to win $20.83

Giants (+7.5)

Straight Up ATS (-115)

Just when the Patriots were looking like a bonafide Super Bowl threat, they lost their entire left side of the offensive line, which makes Drake Maye’s blindside protection look shakier than a can of gelatinous cranberry sauce. That’s great news for the Giants’ pass rush, easily their best unit and now set up to tee off on a patched-together front. New England should still be able to find success running the ball (because the Giants defend the run like it’s optional) but their passing efficiency is going to take a real hit.

On the other side, Jaxson Dart has had an extra week to recover from his concussion, and his scrambling ability is exactly the kind of thing that can frustrate a disciplined Patriots defense. Even elite units haven’t solved him when he gets moving. Losing Cam Skattebo hurts, but this matchup sets up better for Dart’s legs than the traditional run game anyway.

Factor in the classic “post-coordinator firing wake-up call” bump, the Patriots’ O-line mess, and the fact that Dart basically lives in one-score games, and +7.5 is just too many points.

💰$25.00 to win $21.74

Kirk's Picks

$641.67 available to bet this week +$541.67 last week -$158.33 for the season

Time to be conservative and thoughtful with my cash reserves. I was burned once before, and I don't like taking risks like that often.

The Odds Are Low, It'll Work Out Parlay (+433)

Josh Jacobs ATS, Javonte Williams ATS, Ja'Marr Chase ATS

1. Please

2. See

3. Below

💰$100.00 to win $433.62

My Hounds Are Hungry Parlay (+578)

Packers +2.5, Cowboys +3.5, Bengals +7

Oh boy do I hope the dogs get to feast this turkey day. Never mind that the favorites tend to dominate historically on Thanksgiving, I'm throwing that out the window with the cranberry sauce.

1. Packers Defense is good. While I dislike Jordan Love he is due for a 'wow where the fuck did that come from game'. But really if the Packers D gets penetration and makes Goff uncomfortable it'll be a return to the sad old times at Ford Field.

2. Cowboys just beat my Superbowl champion Eagles. Which means according to the laws of physics they can beat this two-faced Chiefs team. Or at least cover.

3. Joe Burrow returns! The chosen child! Last two games against Baltimore he's thrown for 800 yards-ish total and 9 TD's. Sure they lost those games, but who cares about a win when you're getting +7?

💰$100.00 to win $578.24

Who Put This Hedge Here (+850)

Detroit Defense Anytime TD

Well. Just in case we see the other Jordan show up.

💰$50.00 to win $425.00

Pour On Some Points (-105)

Rams @ Panthers Over 45.5

Man 10.5 is a big ol spread. And the Panthers are capable of scoring late F U garbage times points. Let's just root for some fun in Carolina. Probably not for Panthers fans but hey, let them dream.

💰$191.67 to win $182.54

Please Support My Brother In Law, He Is Suffering from Billsfanitis (-104)

Bills -3.5

Get right game for Josh Allen in a prove it situation. You've got KC creeping up behind and the Pats walking away with the AFC. Time to play with some urgency or we might as well give up on the entire City of Buffalo being a sports town.

💰$150.00 to win $144.23

I Flipped A Coin For Tom Parlay (+1163)

Texans +4.5, Vikings +11.5, Jags -6.5, Bucs -2.5

Our friend Tom famously disdains sports betting (but thanks for reading Tom, we love you). He has said he may as well just flip a coin and bet whatever lands face up. He is actually a ton of fun at parties.

In his honor I flipped a coin 4 times to craft this.

1. Heads (Texans)

2. Heads (Vikings)

3. Heads (Jaguars)

4. Tails (Bucs)

💰$50.00 to win $581.83

Bonus Bet

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$829.86 for the season

Note: Not part of the weekly totals. This is a brotherhood bet, a ritual sacrifice to Taranis so he doesn't smite us both.

Our Bonus Bets this season have been really, really ugly. At this point, the only thing to do is lean into the disgust. Here is something so odorous, you might puke up your Thanksgiving turkey. Enjoy!

The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Underdog Moneyline Round Robin

• Titans, Panthers, Browns | $25.00 to win $1644.88

• Panthers, Browns, Jets | $25.00 to win $1036.40

• Titans, Browns, Jets | $25.00 to win $620.69

• Titans, Panthers, Jets | $25.00 to win $1245.20

💰 $100.00 to win $4547.17

Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!