Oddball: Week 1 NFL Bets

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

The NFL season is here again, and you've luckily found the ONLY football gambling content on the internet. That’s right — no one else has ever thought to make NFL picks, track bets, or talk about point spreads. We’re pioneers. Trailblazers. Basically Lewis and Clark, but with parlays.

Our rules are simple:

• Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.

• We must bet the entire $100.

• Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.

• Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).

• Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, let’s get to the picks — and see if Kirk can get off and running on his way to a repeat victory.

Matt's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week +$0.00 last week +$0.00 for the season

Finally, football is back. My summer highlight reel? Moving houses (pure agony), watching the Mets bullpen (even worse agony), and lugging beach chairs and sand toys up and down the East Coast like an overweight pack mule (actual physical agony). To numb the pain, I mainlined roughly 4,000 hours of NFL preview podcasts — plus churned out a few columns of my own — only to be assaulted every ten minutes by ads for the next big AI-powered fart app.

But none of that compares to the real thing. And speaking of real: time for my first pick. Yes, it’s being made on video, straight from the very real Ithaca, NY. Last year’s bet can now be officially settled and forgotten. Definitely not haunting me. Cool? Cool.

Cowboys (+8.5)

Straight up ATS (-115)

💰$30.00 to win $26.09

Browns (+5.5)

Straight up ATS (-114)

In the first two weeks of the season under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 1-9. League sources are reporting Taylor returned from his 3-month stay in Hawaii on Tuesday, still reeking of poolside mai tais. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has historically struggled in Cincinnati, where Myles Garrett regularly disrupts him. Cincinnati’s O-line remains shaky, especially at tackle, which could mean more pressure and mistakes. And that's before we even talk about the defense, which has been rated the worst in the NFL.

The Browns, on the other hand, have been the butt of everyone's offseason jokes. Everyone is projecting them to be one of the worst teams in the league because of their questionable quarterback situation. But I'd argue a fresh, Week 1 version of Joe Flacco is capable of producing, especially with healthy weapons like Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku. Remember, he'll be playing against an extremely porous defense.

These Week 1 divisional games are never as obvious as they seem on paper. Everyone is lining up to bet on a Bengals bounce back season. Let's zag and make the stinky, but profitable, pick.

💰$30.00 to win $26.32

6-Point Teaser (-134)

Seahawks +8.5 Lions +8.5

Has the curse of Taranis finally been lifted off the 49ers? I’ll go ahead and assume no until proven otherwise. Which means I’m taking Seattle — another divisional home underdog — teased up through the key numbers.

Seattle’s defense is projected to be one of the league’s best, and they get to face a patchwork 49ers offense missing Brandon Aiyuk (injury) and Deebo Samuel (fat/traded). Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ new offensive coordinator is Klint Kubiak, who casually dropped 90+ points with the lousy Saints in the first two weeks last year. I’ll take my chances that he hasn’t forgotten how to draw up plays.

And since it takes two to tango in a teaser, give me the Lions. If you're one of the millions who read my NFC North season preview, you’ll remember I was high on the Packers and a little cold on Detroit. But the Packers hype train has jumped the tracks. They added one superstar defender and all of a sudden people are penciling them into the next five Super Bowls. Let’s pump the brakes before we print out Jordan Love's invitation to Canton on a blank sheet of computer paper. Meanwhile, the Lions went 15-2 last year and steamrolled pretty much everyone. Yes, they lost their coordinators, but the players are the ones who actually have to, you know, play football — and that roster is mostly intact, with the bonus of a fully healed defense. This is a toss-up game, and I expect it stays tight. Getting Detroit teased to over a touchdown seems like easy money. Seems.

💰$20.00 to win $15.00

Moneyline Parlay (+127)

Broncos Ravens

I like the Broncos at home to open against rookie Cam Ward and the Titans. That’s a brutal assignment for a professional debut — mile-high altitude, one of the league’s nastiest defenses, and about 70,000 stoned mountain men screaming at you before you’ve even figured out which wristband has the play sheet. I think the Titans actually might be feisty enough to hang inside the 8.5-point spread, but for our purposes, Denver on the moneyline is the safe appetizer.

And for my main course, I'll have the Ravens. The same Ravens who absolutely pantsed Buffalo 35-10 early last season (enough to get Sean McDermott’s seat glowing orange) only to blow their playoff rematch thanks to Mark Andrews gagging all over himself. Baltimore spent the offseason stewing on that, then reloaded their secondary so Kyle Hamilton can get back to his natural role wrecking run games. This is still one of the league’s most complete rosters, yet somehow they’re not treated like the Chiefs/Eagles-level darlings. Perfect.

Meanwhile, in Buffalo, it once again "could be the year", but they’re walking in without Khalil Shakir — Josh Allen’s only trustworthy receiver. So it’s Allen, some no-name wideouts, and Harbaugh’s 12-5 Week 1 ATS record staring them down.

💰$20.00 to win $15.00

Kirk's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week +$0.00 last week +$0.00 for the season

We're back baby! Back!

I've got to say the impending football season has got my blood flowing better than the Cialis I stole from the nursing home down the street. It turns out if you walk in there pushing a wheelchair no one will stop you. No, I'm not here for Nana, I'm here to reward myself, and it turns out the pills combined with low moral behavior, and crime, is the only cocktail that works to get me going.

Well, I guess that's not entirely true. There are other ways.

I had so much fuck you money last year I could lose $700 in the final week and still dominate. Man, I rock.

Oh yeah. That'll do pig, that'll do.

Go Birds Parlay (+1678)

Saquon Barkley ATD Jalen Hurts ATD A.J. Brown ATD Jalen Hurts +225 Yards Birds -8.5

So, Matt and I were at our friend Tom's house this past Superbowl to watch the Birds dick stomp the Chiefs. It was pretty fun for half of us. That's the last thing I remember for months as I'm pretty sure there was a gas leak so it's all a blur until recently. Tom's also known to be the gas leak guy so we'll just chalk up the fact I didn't get to be a full homer for the Birds on the site to that.

This fun little bet right out the gate is to compensate for that sure, but it's also based upon 1 simple factor.

The Cowboys coach this year is the totally uninspired, dull, feckless, Brian Schottenheimer. Jerry Jones fired at least a competent coach and went through the bargain bin finding it empty. Only when he lifted his hand out of the bin did he see Brian sticking to it like dusty old gum.

Expect the Birds to come out in F you mode against their divisional rivals and pull out a full bag of tricks coming off the Superbowl win.

💰$25.00 to win $419.53

Commanders (-5.5)

Straight up ATS (-120)

Even though he's in the division, I was a fan of Jayden Daniels last year. Talented and backed up by a team with fresh life and some moxie from their second-year coach Dan Quinn.

I don't think they'll fall off much this year and this bet like the one above is really about the opposing coach. Brian Daboll is a blame manager and is a dead duck walking.

The Giants fucking suck man!!

💰$75.00 to win $62.50

Bonus Bet

$100.00 available to bet this week +$0.00 last week +$0.00 for the season

Note: Not part of the weekly totals. This is a brotherhood bet, a ritual sacrifice to Taranis so he doesn't smite us both.

We couldn't agree on anything involving the Eagles on Thursday night, so we wanted to get some action in on Friday's Sao Paolo Special. Or, as my Uncle Jack calls it, the only good thing to come out of Brazil besides coffee beans and bikini waxes.

Same-Game Parlay (+276)

• Chiefs moneyline

• Omarion Hampton under 46.5 rushing yards

• Chris Jones to record a sack

💰 $100.00 to win $276.85

Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!