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2025 NFL Season Preview: AFC South
- Matt Talmage
- Sep 3
- 6 min read
I saved this preview for last because every time I started writing about these teams I fell asleep. Our Wall Street investors won't want me to say this, but you can probably skip this post.
Houston Texans
Highlight From Last Season
The Texans picked off Justin Herbert four times en route to a 32-12 victory in the Wild Card round. That gave Stroud his second playoff victory in as many years in the league. Not a bad start to what should be an "above average" career according to Uncle Jack.
Lowlight From Last Season
This team partied too hard on holidays. They lost a head-scratcher to the Jets on Halloween, dropped one to Will Levis over Thanksgiving weekend, and got crushed 31-2 by the Ravens on Christmas Day. Somebody tell Stroud to go easy on the trick-or-treating this year.
Biggest Offseason Storyline
We didn't even make it to Week 1 before Houston had to break glass on the running back depth chart. Joe Mixon sustained a non-football injury to his foot, which is NFL-speak for “something dumb happened we’re not going to explain.” Whatever the case, the Texans’ two-headed monster at RB is starting with one head in a walking boot, and that leaves Nick Chubb's reconstructed knee, Dameon Pierce, and rookie Woody Marks to carry the load.
QB Situation
C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, Graham Mertz
Stroud burst onto the scene in 2023 looking like he’d been airdropped in by FEMA to save Houston — 4,100 yards, 23 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and an Uncle Jack monologue about how the kid deserved both a gold jacket and the Medal of Freedom. Then came 2024, where the shine dulled: 3,700 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 picks, with two extra games. Sure, his receivers spent half the year held together by duct tape, and he still walked away with the division. But the narrative shifted. Uncle Jack now calls him “pretty good,” which, for a man who once tried to argue Stroud was a better patriot than Paul Revere, is basically character assassination.
2025 Prediction | Under 9.5 wins
I'm going to sell my Texans stock this year. I know they are projected to have one of the league's best defenses, but I'm starting to smell a regression coming. They went 11-6 last year while playing in a cakewalk of a division and facing opposing quarterbacks like Will Levis, Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Mason Rudolph. I'm not saying the division will suddenly turn into the 2024 NFC North or anything, but it's definitely going to be a tougher road for them this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Highlight From Last Season
In a season where the Jaguars looked like they were playing hide-and-seek with the concept of competent football, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was the one guy who actually showed up. He racked up 87 receptions, 1,282 yards, and 10 touchdowns — setting franchise rookie records across the board. He also snagged seven passes of 40+ yards, which is the third most by a rookie in NFL history.
Lowlight From Last Season
If you took the Jags in Week 11 against the Lions, my condolences. Trevor Lawrence got concussed, Doug "Butters" Pederson's coaching seat went from warm to Chernobyl, and the defense was so generous it could have filed for 501(c)(3) nonprofit status. The whole thing unraveled into a 52–6 embarrassment that doubled as a three-hour infomercial for Pederson’s eventual firing. Somehow he limped through the rest of a 4–13 slog, only to get canned the second it mercifully ended.
Rest in peace, Doug.
Offseason Storyline
First, Liam Coen shoved the GM out the door and plopped himself in the head coach’s chair like he was Urban Meyer passing out on the plane after a bar crawl. Then came the draft-day fireworks, trading up for two-way unicorn Travis Hunter — who apparently plans to play both sides of the ball, sell concessions at halftime, and drive the team bus back to the airport. Meanwhile, Trevor “Lank” Lawrence returned from his injury in style, making a surprise cameo at SummerSlam, where he lost a ladder match to Jey Uso but impressed scouts with his ability to take a chair shot. Toss in a few bargain-bin free agent signings and you’ve got yourself an offseason equal parts chaos, comedy, and “wait, is this team going to be kind of fun"?
QB Situation
Trevor Lawrence, Nick Mullens
Trevor Lawrence is now 22-38 as a starter. Might be time to cut the hair, pal.
2025 Prediction | Over 7.5 wins
What if the Jaguars just… don’t suck? Trevor Lawrence is back in one piece, Liam Coen is supposed to be an offensive savant, and Brian Thomas Jr. already looks like he’s a top receiver in the league. Travis Hunter might pull a Shohei Ohtani and somehow play 120 snaps a game, while Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby make for a backfield that’s at least above average. If the defense can rise to the lofty bar of semi-competent, this team could stumble its way into the playoff picture and have people pretending they believed in them all along.
Tennessee Titans
Highlight From Last Season
The Titans’ highlight reel certainly wasn't made by Will Levis — it was courtesy of other teams tripping over themselves. First, the Raiders went rogue and accidentally beat the Jaguars in Week 16. Then Drew Lock and the Giants decided to cosplay as a real football team and beat the Colts in Week 17. Finally, Joe Milton and the Patriots pulled off a meaningless Week 18 upset of the Bills. Each win was as baffling as it was hilarious, and together they gift-wrapped Tennessee the No. 1 pick, Cam Ward.
Lowlight From Last Season
Somehow going 2-15 against the spread (the single worst performance of any team in the Super Bowl era) has to win. But here's a really awful game-losing Will Levis pick six that also has to be discussed.
Offseason Storyline
No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward is in the building, signing a fully guaranteed four-year, $48.7 million deal as the franchise’s new signal-caller and team captain. They added Tyler Lockett to the wide receiver room that already contained Calvin Ridley (who will hopefully avoid the same game parlays better than Kirk). They also added L'Jarius Sneed to the secondary in hopes of being "less awful" in 2025.
QB Situation
Cam Ward, Brandon Allen, Will Levis
I hope Cam Ward is terrific right away. If he's mediocre, let's go back to Will Levis. Levis stunk, but in the most massively entertaining way possible. I want to have fun watching the Titans, so let's hope for either a superstar run for Cam or a failed redemption arch for Will.
2025 Prediction | Over 5.5 wins
The bar is on the floor, but the Titans might actually step over it this year. Cam Ward has the “future face of the franchise” label stamped on his forehead, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett give him a legitimately respectable WR duo. If Ward adjusts quickly and the offensive line doesn’t collapse like a Jenga tower in the fourth quarter, 6–7 wins aren’t out of the question. It’s not playoff football, but after last year’s dumpster fire, competence would feel like a parade.
Indianapolis Colts
Highlight From Last Season
This pass was insane.
Lowlight From Last Season
Some might say it was when their starting quarterback took himself out of a red zone drive because he was tired. But I'd say it was giving up 45 points and a perfect passer rating to Drew Lock on the worst football gambling day of my life. YOU ARE NOT FORGIVEN. BURN IN HELL, INDIANAPOLIS.
Offseason Storyline
Welcome to the Netflix's most depressing reality show: Bad Quarterback. On one side, you’ve got Daniel Jones fresh off being booed out of New York, still clinging to his sole playoff win over Kirk Cousins. On the other, Anthony Richardson — an athletic marvel who alternates between looking like Cam Newton 2.0 and a guy trying to hot wire a car without instructions.
QB Situation
Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, Riley Leonard
Quarterback battle in Indy:
2025 Prediction | Under 7.5 wins
It's like the old adage goes... "Having two quarterbacks that look good every now and then but mostly are a disappointment and make their fans want to storm the field but not in a happy way means you don't actually have a quarterback." I don't like anything about this team, they can go 0-17 for all I care, thanks a lot for costing me the legendary comeback in Oddball. I wish you all the worst!
AFC Playoff Picture
That concludes my completely scientific season previews, which will look scarily accurate by Thanksgiving. Here's how I think the playoff picture will shape up.
Buffalo Bills (AFC East Champion, first round bye)
Denver Broncos (AFC West Champion)
Baltimore Ravens (AFC North Champion)
Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South Champion)
Kansas City Chiefs (first Wild Card)
New England Patriots (second Wild Card)
Cincinnati Bengals (third Wild Card)
