Oddball: Week 15 NFL Bets

Ill & Odd
Dec 11
6 min read

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

Usually Matt writes these quippy intros, but he's all business this week trying to dig himself out of the grave. Moving right along...

Our rules are simple:

Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.
We must bet the entire $100.
Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.
Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).
Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, can you pass me a shovel?

Matt's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$316.76 for the season

I'm back home, freezing my ass off in Connecticut. But for some reason, I have some irrational confidence going on this week. Maybe it's because the Mets are back to being a laughing stock and that makes me want to cry but also makes me feel like everything is back in its right place.

I kind of love the slate. If I wasn't behind by over $1200, I'd probably pick five normal games against the spread. For the record, those games would likely be Chiefs -5.5, Bengals +2.5, Rams -5.5, Packers -2.5, and Steelers -3.0.

But since I've been a shell of myself and Kirk has a rocket ship strapped to his butthole, I need to keep taking big shots the rest of the way. So here we go!

8-Team Moneyline Round Robin (7 Ways)

Must hit 7 out of 8 to win.

Jaguars
Seahawks
49ers
Chiefs
Rams
Packers
Bengals
Steelers

Jaguars — Jacksonville will host the lowly Jets this week. Our boy Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields are both injured, so it looks like it will be either Brady Cook or Adrian Martinez playing quarterback for Gang Green. The Jags will take care of business easily against either of those two jabronis. Next.

Seahawks — One of the best defenses in the league up against a giant question mark at quarterback for the Colts. Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, Anthony Richardson almost lost his eye, and Riley Leonard has a torn knee ligament. The Colts signed 44-year-old Philip Rivers this week and it looks like he might actually start even though he's been coaching high school football for the last four years! If the Seahawks lose this game it might be worse than the time the Toronto Maple Leafs lost to their own zamboni driver.

49ers — With all due respect to the Titans, who won their Super Bowl last week against the mighty Cleveland Browns and played themselves out of the league's basement, they aren't very good. The Niners are an excellent team who have been plagued by injuries and should look much better coming off of their bye. The line seems way too high since Cam Ward is a backdoor cover machine, but a straight up win for Shanahan and co. feels like a walk in the park.

Chiefs — Hot take... I don't think the Chiefs are dead yet. In fact, I'm throwing a few bucks on them to make the playoffs right now at +520. The Chargers' offensive line is in shambles. Shaky o-lines don't travel well to begin with, but especially not when they have to schlep from sunny Los Angeles to Kansas City where it will be 8 degrees on Sunday. KC will get it done this week and keep the pressure on the rest of the AFC wildcard contenders.

Rams — Sean McVay's squad is the best team in football and the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Lions just aren't that good this year. They lost to the damn Vikings and needed overtime to sneak past the Giants. I'm not buying it. Goof will be out for revenge, but Stafford is going to remind him who won the trade.

Packers — The Packers are starting to play like the very complete team I thought they would be before the season. Their wide receiver room is finally healthy and Jordan Love is limiting his completely boneheaded picks to just one per game these days. Their stock is rising at the right time and this feels like a game where they cement their position as a legit contender. I hack on both of these QBs constantly, but I trust Love wayyy more than I trust Nix.

Bengals — The only underdog on this slate, but scared money don't make money. The Bengals are a home underdog against their divisional opponent in the Ravens. I think maybe people think the Ravens were closer to winning last week than it appeared. The officiating got (rightly) criticized, but man... the Ravens just weren't any good for large stretches of that game. Meanwhile, the Bengals were legit taking it to the Bills until a horrendous few minutes caused the wheels to fall off. Give me a pissed off Burrow in a get-right spot.

Steelers — If all goes according to plan, it will all come down to the Steelers hosting the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Since 1992, the Steelers are 22-1 at home on Monday Night. The one loss was during Covid when there were no fans in the stadium. And I don't have the stats in front of me, but I'm pretty sure Tua is 1-891 when the weather gets cold and crummy as I'm sure it will be in Pittsburgh on a December evening. Old Man Rodgers is gonna win this one, take the division, and be super fun to wager against in the Wild Card Round. Book it!

💰$12.00 x 8 parlays = $96.00 wagered Jaguars, Chiefs, Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Packers | $12.00 to win $153.76

Jaguars, Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Packers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $119.69

Jaguars, Chiefs, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Packers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $69.40

Jaguars, Chiefs, Bengals, Rams, 49ers, Packers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $156.31

Jaguars, Chiefs, Bengals, Seahawks, 49ers, Packers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $121.06

Jaguars, Chiefs, Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, Packers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $153.76

Jaguars, Chiefs, Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $92.42

Chiefs, Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Packers, Steelers | $12.00 to win $104.75

Birds Are Done Parlay (+4737)

Raiders Moneyline Chiefs -5.5 Rams -5.5 Packers -2.5

Like I said, I need to take shots. So I'm pairing three of my favorite ATS picks for the week with an insane wager on the Raiders (+610) to pull off the upset of the Eagles.

Listen, this probably won't happen. The Raiders are horrible and the Eagles will be pissed off after an excruciating MNF loss last week. But if things go poorly in front of that Philly crowd in the first quarter, the boo birds will be out in force, and the whole thing could unravel pretty quickly. Since this would be so much fun to watch, I needed to put a few dollars on it. Sorry Tom!

💰$4.00 to win $189.51

Kirk's Picks

$457.41 available to bet this week +$357.41 last week +$904.09 for the season

Is The Cheese Real (-134)

Green Bay Packers ML

I've been a Jordan Love hater. I've been punished for it. Let's see if he's for real.

I think they are playing a fraudulent Broncos team (at least offensively) and if they can beat the fuck out of them then I'll submit he is for real.

Sorry I just realized I ended each sentence with 'for real' but I'm too buzzed to stop now.

💰$257.41 to win $192.10

Tri-Pod (+578)

Texans -9.5, Panthers -2.5, Lions +5.5

Some people are calling me the three leg parlay merchant. They're saying "Kirk, why couldn't you be this successful in your day-to-day life. Kirk your kids miss you, why are you still staying at the Red Roof Inn. There's nothing for you here Kirk what the fuck are you doing!!"

Haters gonna hate.

💰$100.00 to win $578.24