Oddball: Week 15 Recap & Week 16 Picks

Dec 20, 202412 min read

Matt hit a 4-to-1 shot and somehow fell further behind as Kirk's heater continued. With both of us flush with cash, it should be an interesting Holiday Season.

Oddball is our weekly NFL gambling competition where we each get $100 every week and try to outdo each other. The loser has to drive to the State Diner in Ithaca, NY and eat a bowl of chicken and rice soup alone. Let's take a look at how we did this week!

Matt's Week 15 Recap

$100.00 wagered $440.00 won +$316.48 for the season

I really thought I would feel better about myself after hitting a +440 moneyline parlay to jump back into the black for the season. Unfortunately, my esteemed co-author has performed sexual favors for Taranis the Gambling God and just keeps winning every week. I keep waiting for him to slip up like Jonathan Taylor did for the Colts on Sunday. But Kirk seems to be on the right side of every lucky break and brain fart lately. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.

I Don't Want to Go to Ithaca Moneyline Parlay (+440)

Ravens Commanders Bucs Packers

Ravens: Baltimore wasn't intimidated by the fearsome quarterback duo of Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle in this one. They stomped the Giants by 3 touchdowns and had Cutlets munching on chicken parmigiana in the blue tent. No sweat.

Commanders: Speaking of sweat, this one had ALL the sweat. The suddenly very flawed Commanders dicked around and blew a 17-0 lead to Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Then the Saints benefitted from an egregious clock error by the officials. Then I vomited everywhere. Then the Saints decided to go for the win with a two-point conversion instead of playing for overtime by kicking an extra point. Thank god Rattler stinks and I got out of the early window with the parlay intact.

Bucs: Baker Mayfield started off looking shaky, but ultimately put a beat down on a mediocre Chargers team that, depending on the week, looks like both a plucky playoff underdog and an easy Wild Card fade. Tampa has been coming on as of late, and looks poised to make a run at the three seed in the NFC.

Packers: With three legs in the bag, I was waiting for Hammermill Love to look like a blank sheet of computer paper on the road in primetime. But thankfully, he looked more like the high-gloss inkjet stuff that you print resumes on. A nice, convincing win for the Packers and, as an added sweetener, beating the Seahawks was a HUGE help for my Rams bet to win the NFC.

✅ Won $440.00

Kirk's Week 15 Recap

$544.39 wagered $447.73 won +$1309.00 for the season

Seeing Matt actually tip his cap to me has made me feel feelings.

I never want it to stop.

Bengals -4.5

Straight Up ATS (-120)

Bengals 37 - Nashville Dunks 27

This was a fun one!

I never had a doubt the Bengals would clean up easily. I calmly checked my phone for highlights during family time at the in-laws and never felt more secure in my bet.

Not to be outdone was this Big Fella rumbling, and STUMBLING, downfield.

Phew! I bet he was breathing heavier than I was upon seeing that Red Zone turnover and the Bengals down 7 in the 2nd quarter.

And while things looked grim, I honestly, truly, was not that concerned. As I mentioned in our picks column, the Titans quarterback was (white guy with dog who likes to sit on porch and stare whimsically into the distance) and I've never been more sure of a bet in my life. Will Levis threw 3 picks and got benched for racist, sorry alleged racist, Mason Rudolph. What a hilarious clusterfuck of an organization. At least you fired one of the top 8 coaches in the league to start fresh Tennessee!

✅ Won $217.73

Money line Parlay (-125)

Cardinals, Vikings

Red Shirted Asses 30 - Patriots 17

Vikings 30 - Da Bears 12

Boring games and predictable. I got to say, I was a big pussy for not betting these spreads straight up instead of going with the money line play. I love me, but ya know, I hate me too.

✅ Won $107.05

Broncos -3.5

Straight Up ATS (-122)

Pony Boys 31 - Dead Horses 13

As Matt's expertly crafted graphic for the week portrays, I do have thanks to pay to Jonathan Taylor.

This drop completely killed the Colts momentum, and a game that saw them in the driver seat turned to ash immediately. It spurned the Broncos to get their shit together and they never looked back the rest of the game.

And huh, does look similar to the Bengals drop above that Matt conveniently didn't highlight in his graphic. Probably because it doesn't fit his narrative.

But I know his real mistake is thinking that Taranis controls his fate in this competition. There is only The Football Gods. All others are mere agents at best and pretenders at worst. Repent sinner.

Any who! Another, easy, stress free win.

✅ Won $122.95

Week 15 Bonus Bet Recap

-$100.00 last week +$285.00 for the season

Lol, nobody did anything interesting in this game at all.

Same Game Parlay (+700)

Kyren Williams any time touchdown scorer ❌
Deebo Samuel any time touchdown scorer ❌
Brock Purdy 225+ passing yards ❌
George Kittle 5+ receptions ❌

❌ Lost $100.00

Holiday Mailbag

From Jack in Stratford, CT

Matt, I hope you and the tall one aren't too distracted with that Elf on the Shelf bullcrap to make some good picks this week. These newfangled holiday traditions that nobody asked for really grind my gears. Especially ones that teach our kids to accept surveillance during the most wonderful time of the year. No wonder we have drones flyin all over the country while the snowflakes in the White House play grab ass in there gender neutral bathrooms. Elf on the Shelf? More like Narc on the Mantle! Today it's snitches in Santa hats spying on our living rooms. Tomorrow it's Chinese social media apps harvesting our facial recognition data with videos of goofballs dancing to "Grandma Got Run Over By a Reindeer". And don't get me started on having football every day of the week. Sundays on CBS and FOX used to be sacred. Now I've got to figure out how to do streaming on a Wednesday if I want to watch Patrick Mahomes hobble around and throw to clueless receivers who were working construction two weeks ago? That reminds me, Matt, can you come over and hook up my Firestick again? So is their anything I'm looking forward to this holiday season? The classics, of course. Stringing up way too many lights, throwing an extra log on the fire (sorry climate wusses), and digging into a plate of Susie's famous ham and potato salad. I don't care that it's overcooked. I'm just happy the steamed tilapia is off the menu this year! And all I want for Christmas? Simple. A new pair of work gloves, a decent cigar, and a government that keeps its drones (and its elves) off of my god damn property. Oh, and I hope that no good cyber bully Jared Goof gets nothing but coal for what he did to Tony from the plant's niece. That's not too much to ask, is it?

From Tom in Plymouth Meeting, PA

I can't follow your football conversations anymore. I just watch the Eagles. No fantasy. No gambling. No Red Zone. Nothing. Just a glass of bourbon and Joe Buck's dulcet tones on the Fox broadcast. I think I am turning into Uncle Jack.

From Tyrod in Secaucus, NJ

ay yo, happy yuletide to my ill crew! it's ya boy tyrod comin at ya this week from my packed up crib in jersey. it's weird havin all these movin boxes layin around over the holidays, cuz usually i'm goin all out with the tinsel, twinkly lights, and can't forget the mistletoe. but with only three weeks to go, it's time to start closin the book on another chapter of the tyrod chronicles. it woulda been great if aaron coulda led us to the postseason because the new season of silo is really heatin up and i coulda used at least another week on the bench catchin up on my apple tv. i guess we'll have to settle for upsettin the rams and crushin matt's nfc west bet that he can't shut up about. congrats, dawg. ya lost like 87 out of 90 bets this year. hope ya have some good podcasts downloaded for that drive up to ithaca. my fave is 'the watch' by those ringer cats. they always give me some good suggestions for new programs to check out on the ol' microsoft surface. anywho, don't let uncle jack drink too much eggnog and start doin snow angels in the nude again. happy holidays ya bastards.

From Jake in Morristown, NJ

I went to my neighbor's holiday party on a Tuesday night, got super stoned and watched 'Wolf of Wall Street'. When I got home, I set off my own security alarm, got the cops called to the house, and when all was said and done my wife made me sleep on the couch. And yet I still had a better week than the New York Football Giants. PS: What's the etiquette on naming your dog after your friend's daughter and never acknowledging it? Asking for a friend.

From Daniel in Minneapolis, MN

Wow guys so the move up here to Minnesota has been awesome so far. Ever been to the Mall of America? It's not a mall. It's a UNIVERSE. There's a rollercoaster INSIDE. THE. MALL. I'm serious. Like a full-on rollercoaster with all the twisty-turny upside-downy parts. I rode it twice. Not intentionally, but because I got turned around looking for the food court and ended up in line again. I had to call Justin Jefferson to come find me. We went to the aquarium together. I think we're becoming best friends. Yes, there's an aquarium INSIDE. THE. MALL. Sharks, fish, rays... all right there beneath your feet. You can even pet them if you want! Which I totally did. For far too long apparently, because I was asked to keep the line moving for the little kids. Dang. The rays were just so smooth I never wanted to leave. On the way out I bought a cool new pair of socks with llamas on them. Coach O'Connell complimented me on them at practice before he told me all the new cryptos to buy. I'm fitting in on the new team great! Can't wait to win another playoff game in Minnesota this January.

Matt's Week 16 Picks

$540.00 available to bet this week +$440.00 last week +$316.48 for the season

I'm still a rounding error or two away from being down a full grand in this contest, so I'd say I'm still in pretty good shape. The pressure shifts to Kirk to not pull a Jonathan Taylor on the goal line with three weeks to go. Time to take a few more shots down the field.

Send It! Moneyline Parlay (+344)

Lions Bengals Bills Falcons Jaguars

Let's run it back with another big moneyline parlay to try to get back into this thing. Here's why I like each of these teams to win outright.

Lions: I know they just lost David Montgomery and everyone is saying they've crossed the point of no return with injuries. But if you know anything about Dan Campbell, he's gonna have this team ready to run through a wall and prove that they're good enough even with their missing stars on both sides of the ball. It helps that the Bears can't stop the run for shit and have only managed 163 first half yards in their last 3 games.

Bengals: I hate this stupid team with all of my heart and soul, but the Browns are DONE. They lost Nick Chubb to a broken foot and will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson over Jameis Winston in this one. The Football Gods that Kirk speaks of will not like this move because of how fucking fun Jameis Winston is. I expect them to punish the Browns accordingly. Bills: The Josh Allen heat check will continue this week, where the Bills get to return home for the first time since December 1st. The Bills Mafia will be going nuts for this one, out in the single-digit temps that North Carolina boy Drake Maye is not going to appreciate. I honestly don't have much of a problem laying the 14 points with Buffalo, but let's keep it safe and play the moneyline here.

Falcons: I'm feeling Big Penix Energy in this game. But who gives a shit who the quarterback is? I could fucking suit up for Atlanta this week and the Giants would still roll over and die. They are done. Drew Lock is coming back in to start at QB even though he was in a walking boot last week. I'm sure that will go better than Tim Boyle or Moldy Marinara, but it's still not going to go well. For the record, I think Penix will be good.

Jaguars: After all of that chalk, let's take the stinky Jaguars to beat the stinky Raiders to juice up the odds a bit. The Raiders, like the Giants, are fucking done. They have a lame duck coach, will be trotting out their third-string quarterback, and have no interested in winning the game because they have the inside track at the first overall pick. Mac Jones is too dumb to figure out he's bad, so he'll be playing for the win for Jacksonville.

💰 $200.00 to win $688.00

Seahawks (+3.5)

Adjusted spread (-129)

Here's a nice buy low spot on Seattle who got stomped on by the Packers last week. Nobody will want to jump back on the Seahawks, especially with Geno Smith getting banged up in that Sunday Night Football game. But COME ON with this Vikings team. I just still don't buy them. I don't. I won't. You can't make me! Sam Darnold is always vulnerable especially in rainy Seattle weather with the raucous home crowd who still very rightly believes their team has a chance to make a playoff push. I adjusted this so I could grab the hook. Hopefully I won't need it!

💰 $258.00 to win $200.00

Fuck Me Moneyline Parlay (+533)

Jets Cowboys

What would fuck up my future bets on the Rams and Bucs the hardest? Both of them blowing it to stinky teams. Consider this an insurance policy that conveniently doubles as a long shot method of maybe pulling off the late season surge needed to keep me out of the frozen hippie enclave of Ithaca.

If I really have to make a case for the Jets, Aaron Rodgers has looked much better over the last couple of weeks and has been taking shots down the field to Adams and Wilson with a lot more success. On the other side of the ball will be Matthew Stafford, notorious for being crappy outdoors in rainy or cold weather. It looks like it's going to be absolutely frigid this weekend at the Meadowlands, so maybe the Jets can steal it.

I really thought I was done with the Cowboys after they totally fell apart against the Bengals a couple weeks back on Monday Night Football. But let's throw out the late game brain fart and remember that their defense actually looked pretty good against Joe Burrow, and now they'll be getting DaRon Bland back for this game. Even though Baker Mayfield has been slinging it for the Bucs, he's still Baker Mayfield. Would anyone be shocked if he screwed this one up, the Falcons beat the Giants, and the crappy NFC South was all tied up again with two weeks to go?

💰 $82.00 to win $437.55

Kirk's Week 16 Picks

$547.73 available to bet this week +$447.73 last week +$1309.00 for the season

The worst part about being in the lead in this competition is that Matt is going to continue gambling like a complete stranger. I've known him for so long that when I see out of character behavior from him it deeply worries me. I feel the tendrils of doubt creeping into me.

Banish it. Leave it behind.

Crush your enemies. See them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women.

Gut Parlay (+615)

Ravens -6.5, Eagles -3.5, 49ers +1.5

First glance at the board I insta bet this the other night without even pausing to think. After my guy had its say, I reasoned out the impulse behind it:

That energy is all I need to know how each of the teams above will fair in their match ups this week.

As to the 49ers/Dolphins? Man the Dolphins fucking suck. Watching them is worse than the Jets as at least the Jets have comedic value.

And it would be be a sweet irony for this to come down the 49ers win, a team I hate, and that Taranis has cursed, only for their curse to be lifted to benefit me. Matt may poop fire if that were to happen.

(editors note: I bet the Eagles which my wife has not allowed around her because I'm always ruining it for her with my energy so I'm in deep shit)

💰 $100.00 to win $615.98

Hungry Road Dog Mentality Parlay (but not dogs) (+949)

Lions -6.5, Rams -3, Vikings -3, Bucs Money Line

I was looking at multi player TD parlays to get a big odds shot going but honestly? I've lost all confidence in the ability to pick the right players this late in the season. Teams are either cooked, or will do whatever it takes to win and get into the playoffs. Forget force feeding a player because he's a big name, that shit no longer matters.

Lions, please see below.
Rams, I mean, now or never against the Jets. If they don't win this one that's a wrap.
Vikings, the most nervous I feel because it's against a rebounding Geno Smith who notoriously performs better after a loss.
Bucs, Baker Mayfield is a unit.

💰 $100.00 to win $949.52

Lions -6.5 (-114)

Yeaaaaah, I'm thinking this is gonna be a fun one for the Bears.

💰 $347.73 to win $305.03

Week 16 Bonus Bet