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Kirk cashed for an unprecedented fifth straight week and Matt's last gasp relied on Mac Jones heroics which shockingly did not work out.
Oddball is our weekly NFL gambling competition where we each get $100 every week and try to outdo each other. The loser has to drive to the State Diner in Ithaca, NY and eat a bowl of chicken and rice soup alone. Let's take a look at how we did this week!
Matt's Week 16 Recap
$540.00 wagered -$82.00 lost +$234.48 for the season
I watched approximately 6 billion hours of football over the weekend until my eyes glazed over and then had my last desperate attempt at a comeback come down to whether or not this guy could run a successful two-minute drill:
I am broken. I'm turning the recap over to a few special guests.
Send It! Moneyline Parlay (+344)
Lions ✅ Bengals ✅ Bills ✅ Falcons ✅ Jaguars ❌
From my Uncle Jack in Stratford, CT:
Leave it to my intellectually-challenged nephew to nail four excellent picks in a row like he's some kind of Moneyline Messiah born in a manger at the Venetian sportsbook snack bar, only to blow it all on the worst pick since New York's 14th district voted for Alexa Octavia-Cortez. A $200 parlay that should've paid for Christmas dinner (egg prices notwithstanding) went up in flames because he had a "feeling" about Coach Butters and the hapless Jaguars.
It reminded me of Christmas at my house three years ago when everything was shaping up to be perfect. A couple inches of snow on the ground, Bing Crosby carols on the radio, a glistening honey baked ham in the oven, and Susie even got up from her Suduku puzzle long enough to change out of her bathrobe and put on a bit of makeup for once. It was all going perfectly until Colin showed up with some kind of vagan kale and quinoa side dish instead of mashed potatoes that was even more offensive than the vitriolic emails Jared Goof sends to my friend Tony from the plant's niece every night at 2AM. And if that wasn't bad enough, the little ingrate thought it was the perfect time to announce he'd joined some hippie co-op that doesn't believe in owning Christmas trees because their unsustainable. That's the problem with this generation. They have no respect for tradition or a good parlay! Without slaughtered farm animals and deforestation, Christmas feels about as festive as a lump of coal in your rear end. Just like Matt's botched bet!
Merry Christmas everyone! Don't let the Starbucks woke police force you to say Happy Holidays. If they do, you take that vagan quinoa and stuff it right down there whiny little throats in the name of Christ the King, amen.
❌ Lost $200.00
Seahawks (+3.5)
Adjusted spread (-129)
From our friend Jake in New Jersey: As a financial advisor, I would strongly caution against purchasing a half-point in sports wagering because it often represents a negative expected value (EV) decision. Let me explain:
Sportsbooks charge a premium for moving the line in your favor, typically adjusting the odds from the standard -110 to, say, -130. This shift means you need to bet $130 to win $100 instead of $110 to win $100. While moving the spread might make a push less likely, the incremental cost to "buy" that half-point is disproportionately higher than its statistical benefit.
Consider this analytically. The likelihood of a game landing precisely on the number you're adjusting (e.g., a 3-point difference in football) is small but measurable—about 8-10% for key numbers in football. However, the additional juice (the higher odds) you pay often outweighs the incremental chance of avoiding a loss or earning a push. Over the long run, this means you're consistently paying more for a safety net that, statistically, doesn’t provide equivalent returns.
In financial terms, you're effectively trading your bankroll's compounding potential for a hedging mechanism that diminishes your ROI. The house edge increases, and your breakeven probability rises above 52.4%, which is already challenging for casual bettors.
In summary, just like in investing, minimizing fees and maximizing value are key to long-term success. Buying a half-point is like overpaying for insurance on a volatile stock—it might feel prudent in the moment but generally erodes profitability over time. You're better off sticking with the original line and ensuring your bets align with a sharp, data-driven strategy.
The only wager I made this week was unfortunately a $4 loss on the Giants +9. I still think they have a chance if they could just adjust their blocking scheme slightly.
✅ Won $200.00
Fuck Me Moneyline Parlay (+533)
Jets ❌ Cowboys ✅
From my boy Tyrod in Orchard Park, NY ay yo, happy yuletide to my ill crew! it's ya boy tyrod freezin his ass off this week up in buffalo. sorry we crapped all over this parlay for ya, talmage. ya shoulda called me up before ya locked it in. i woulda filled ya in on aaron's ayahuasca-fueled holiday vision quest. he built a motherfuckin teepee at the team facility, strung it up with multicolored twinklin lights, and was sittin in there smokin the peace pipe with rfk, kid rock, davante, matt gaetz, guy fieri, elon, steve zahn, and hulk hogan for 72 hours straight. it looked pretty fun til davante started wavin mistletoe over everyone's heads and they all began chantin along as kid rock played "bawitdaba" on the pan flute. irregardless, it was pretty clear aaron would be far from game shape on sunday. the last i saw him on saturday evenin was around midnight, chasin a live reindeer around the practice field tryin to coax it into their improvised peruvian sweat lodge. what a fuckin scene! anyways, ya got any handy tips to sober someone up from a dmt trip? i gotta get this mofo through two more weeks. can y'all honestly believe i haven't thrown a pass yet this year? that might be even crazier than any of aaron's medical advice. hope santa brings ya a winnin same parlay for ya bonus bet this week! merry christmas ya filthy animals.
❌ Lost $82.00
Kirk's Week 16 Recap
$547.73 wagered $105.03 won +$1414.03 for the season
Another week, another win.
While my colleague Matt is surprised by the streak, I'm not. I communed directly with The Football Gods and I am seeing beyond the veil.
Now, having said that, I may have been pre-celebrating the Bucs surely winning the game before kick off against the Cowboys. I strutted around my house smiling ear to ear thinking about the big dump I was going to take on Matt after narrowly staving him off from a huge comeback (thank you Mac Jones, you're all I wanted for Christmas).
For my hubris, I was punished.
Gut Parlay (+615)
Ravens -6.5 ✅ Eagles -3.5 ❌ 49ers +1.5 ❌
What started off as a 'nice little Saturday' with an easy Ravens win was quickly turned sour as the Eagles fell at 1PM Sunday.
I went against my strict mantra of not betting the Birds thereby increasing stress levels of all in the house. However, with Jalen Hurts getting concussed early in the game I truly thought the Birds chances dipped to 50% on escaping with a win (so I wasn't that horrible to be around). Kenny Pickett was fine coming off the bench but the Commanders were able to stop the run entirely with an immobile QB back there. Saquan couldn't get anything going after our gameplan had to become more one dimensional.
Credit to Jalen Hurts who I regularly bemoan one instant when he's taking yet another sack instead of tossing the ball away. For some reason, and maybe it's a Philly thing, the bad moments stick in my head more than the good. Never mind that last week he took an 8 yard sack and then scrambled on the next play for 35 yards.
What I'm trying to say is that you don't know how good you got it til it's gone.
Jalen, I am sorry.
(oh yeah and the 49ers are still straight up ass and this bet was doomed anyway. That's what I get in backing a team I truly hate and who are currently under the curse of Taranis. My bad.)
❌ Lost $100.00
Hungry Road Dog Mentality Parlay (but not dogs) (+949)
Lions -6.5 ✅ Rams -3.0 ✅ Vikings -3.0 😐 Bucs ML ❌
Lions, please see below.
The Rams played some ugly football against one of the forgotten but truly ugly teams in the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is officially washed up. Now he's trapped his best friend in New Jersey. As someone who has to commute to Jersey every day for work let me tell you, there is no worse friend than A Rod for what he has done. The Rams look like they could be a tough out if Stafford is dialed in. I would not want to play them.
The Vikings played a great game on the road in what was once a tough atmosphere in Seattle. Sam Darnold got the shit kicked out of him in the 4th and stayed in to deliver a game winning drive. Good for him and good for the organization to get some folks to actually believe in them this year. I was happy with a push given the circumstances. I didn't need to fear Geno as much because anytime there is pressure on him, he folds (game sealing awful interception is a good example).
Baker Mayfield did everything he could to get this team a win and stay in prime position for the playoffs. Unfortunately for him his receivers and RB's came down with a case of the 'oh shit you wanted me to catch that and hold on to it? I was busy greasing down my hog for some fun later and my hands are, ah you know what I'll be fine just throw it my way Shake and Bake'.
❌ Lost $100.00
Lions -6.5 (-114)
Just when the Bears couldn't get any lower. They do!
I never had a doubt on this game and only wish I had poured more of my money on.
C'est la vie!
✅ Won $305.03
Week 16 Bonus Bet Recap
-$100.00 last week +$185.00 for the season
We need a win to try to stay in the black for the year. Yikes.
Same Game Parlay (+415)
Mark Andrews any time touchdown ✅
Chris Boswell over 1.5 field goals made ❌
❌ Lost $50.00
Same Game Parlay (+375)
Nico Collins any time touchdown ❌
C.J. Stroud over 0.5 interceptions ✅
❌ Lost $50.00
Matt's Week 17 Picks
$100.00 available to bet this week -$82.00 last week +$234.48 for the season
WTF Else Am I Gonna Do? ML Parlay (+958)
Chiefs Seahawks Bengals Colts Bucs Dolphins Rams
Oh Mighty Taranis, Lord of Luck and Fate,
Guardian of parlays and protector of risk-takers,
I beseech you from the depths of my wallet and the limits of my credit card.
Look favorably upon my wager, cast your divine dice in my favor,
And guide the hands of quarterbacks, the feet of running backs,
And the judgment of referees to align with my slip of destiny.
Let no wide receiver drop a pass,
Let no kicker stumble before the snap,
And may no underdog miraculously cover the spread.
For I fear, oh Taranis, the dark exile to Ithaca—
A land devoid of red meat, where hippies and pencil necks roam free,
And the only gamble is whether the diner soup will taste decent.
Bless my parlay with the sweet nectar of victory,
So I may return to my friends, triumphant,
And feast upon wings, paid for by their misery and my triumph.
In your name, I spin the roulette of hope.
Amen.
💰 $100.00 to win $958.00
Kirk's Week 17 Picks
$205.03 available to bet this week +$105.03 last week +$1414.03 for the season
I just need to survive any shenanigans. I mean really, I'm the guy who deals in shenanigans. Two more weeks, and I send Matt to balmy Ithaca New York for some beautiful sight seeing. Unless there are shenanigans.
Lamar is real, CJ Stroud is fake (-110)
Ravens -5.5
Laying less than 6 against a mid Texans team? K.
💰 $100.00 to win $90.91
Keep Foot On Gas Parlay (+489)
Bills -9.5, Sushi -6.5, Detroit Lions Moneyline
Jets in Buffalo? A team so tired of getting butt boofed across the field week after week and led by the least charismatic QB ever and an interim HC who doesn't know ball? K.
Dolphins playing as hard as possible (even in cold weather) for a playoff position against maybe, maybe, the worst QB in the league in DTR? K.
Long time no see 49ers! I hope you fucking keep falling off that cliff! I fucking hate you!
💰 $105.03 to win $514.06
Week 17 Bonus Bet
-$100.00 last week +$185.00 for the season
It's time for Christmas fun. All of us at illandodd.com want to wish you and your family a happy and healthy holiday season. Good luck attempting to watch football all week and not getting called a giant piece of shit by your family. Just know, we're right there with you.
Anyway. Let's fucking take a shot this week.
It's Christmas and Shit TD Parlay (+1491)
Noah Gray TD
Derrick Henry TD
Zach Charbonnet TD
💰 $100.00 to win $1491.89
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!