Oddball: Week 3 NFL Bets

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

Two weeks of football in the books. Can we use what we've learned to make profitable decisions? Or is this where we start overthinking things? Stay tuned to find out!

Our rules are simple:

• Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.

• We must bet the entire $100.

• Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.

• Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).

• Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, let’s get to the picks — and see if Kirk is on tilt already.

Matt's Picks

$150.52 available to bet this week +$50.52 last week +$62.93 for the season

A friend of the site wanted to write today's intro.

ay yo, what up ill crew? it's ya boy tyrod, currently writin this from the guest wi-fi at a pirate-themed airboat bar called cap'n skip's floatin chili barn, because tampa has no laws and even fewer vegetables. tyrod's down here in the redneck riviera preparin to make the start against the bucs on sunday, which is a shame because he's been wantin to check out that new program task on hbo. it was all loaded up on the surface tablet and everything. btw, did ya catch ya boy's touchdown pass last week? poor justin got smashed harder than a waffle house jukebox for playin taylor swift. anyways, tyrod thought headin out to see some of the local wildlife would help clear the ol noggin before the big game. but turns out alligator alcatraz ain't a reptile house after all. unfortunately, tyrod had no idea because he hasn't been keepin up on his subscription to the guardian and he mostly scrolls past your cousin's insta stories. so instead of one of those serene gator-watchin eco retreats, ya boy found himself gettin waterboarded next to jimmy kimmel. thankfully, they let tyrod go when they realized he wasn't THAT quarterback who took a knee. instead, ya boy had to go find some inner peace at a local megachurch/cigar lounge called victory tabernacle of the florida saints. tyrod sat quietly in the back, but a deacon called ya boy out for wearin joggers and tried to lay hands on my throwin shoulder to cast out the spirit of hesitation. after the chargers stabbin, ya boy is a bit squirrely about bein touched, so he fled to the parkin lot and hid behind a statue of tim tebow wearin roman armor. so yeah, the off day didn’t go as planned. irregardless, after all that, tyrod returned to the team hotel and ate three cuban sandwiches back-to-back in the bath while watching shrinkin. because nothing is more comfortin to ya boy than blatant hipaa violations, phoebe bridgers, and pasty white therapists treatin generational trauma like a quirky improv prompt. game day is upon us, boys. the parlays are placed. the air is thick. the waterpark is bustlin. the gators are circlin. the evangelicals are busy prayin and spittin at the homeless. that's florida, baby. let's go jets!

49ers (-2.5)

Straight up ATS (-115)

At the risk of this becoming a Mac Jones fan site, I still just think the 49ers are undervalued here. If Brock Purdy was definitely starting, this line would easily be three points higher. So if we end up with Purdy, it will be at a steep discount. And if Mac & Cheese is under center again, well that will be... fine. He just needs to hand it to McCaffrey and wait for Arizona's defense to take their usual fourth quarter nap. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray still treats games like side quests he can abandon halfway through, and now he will be going on the road to face a tough divisional opponent. I'll ride the Niners.

💰$46.00 to win $40.00

6-Point Teaser (-134)

Texans +7.5 Broncos +8.5

The Texans are 0-2, but it’s the kind of 0-2 you can talk yourself into at dive bar after a couple of drinks. They went toe-to-toe with the Rams and Bucs, losing those games by a combined six points. Now they draw Lank Lawrence and the Jaguars, who I still can’t forgive for suplexing my perfect betting week through the Spanish announcer's table by letting Jake Browning throw three interceptions and still stroll into a comeback cover. Houston’s desperate, Jacksonville’s sloppy, and that’s an easy teaser leg.

Next, let’s sprinkle in the Broncos. They had last week’s win snatched away by a dopey leverage penalty that turned a missed Colts field goal into a game-winning do-over. Brutal. Everyone’s jumping ship, because they haven’t covered yet in 2025 — but they should be 2-0 straight up. Now they get the Chargers, who have no home-field advantage, a bunch of Brazilian smoke being blown up their sphincters, and just slogged through a Raiders MNF snoozer that ended at 2:00 AM. They scored a whopping three points in the second half of that masterpiece. All of that travel plus short rest doesn’t help. This will be a tight divisional grudge match.

💰$40.00 to win $30.00

Moneyline Parlay (-139)

Seahawks Chiefs

The Saints stink. Spencer Rattler has yet to win an NFL game and he's not going to start now, especially in front of a raucous Seattle crowd. The Seahawks defense is one of the best in the NFL at stopping the run. They'll bottle up Kamara and force the Rattlesnake into obvious passing downs, which will fare about as well as a 12-pack of Miller Lite in Kirk's garage on a Friday night.

The Giants also stink. That was a fun outburst by Russell Wilson. It was nice living in the before times for a little while. BUT THEY STILL GAVE UP 40 POINTS TO THE COWBOYS AND LOST. By the way, some day I'll write the full account of the time I watched Russell's second career win with Jay-Z. True story. That game, incidentally, was the infamous Fail Mary game that ended the replacement ref lockout of 2012. What a time to be alive.

In a battle between a pair of winless teams, give me the squad with actual playoff aspirations and a three-time Super Bowl champion in his prime at quarterback. It's a classic emotional hedge and should be a fun way to cap off a football-filled Sunday.

💰$42.52 to win $30.69

Browns (+7.5)

Straight up ATS (-110)

Congrats to the Packers, apparently already Super Bowl champs after stomping an injured Jayden Daniels and his retirement-home roster on a short week. Holy moly, can we pump the brakes? I’ll grab the Browns catching more than a touchdown at home, partly out of spite, partly because the numbers actually back it up. Cleveland has out-gained both opponents this year and their pass rush should have a field day against Green Bay’s duct-taped offensive line. I’m not calling the outright upset, but the backdoor cover is absolutely on the table.

💰$44.00 to win $40.00

Kirk's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$137.50 last week -$100.00 for the season

I'm stuck in a hard place by my editor who is forcing us to put these together on Wednesday nights. That means almost none of the parlays for later in the weekend I'd like to dabble in are available to me.

So, a big bet on Thursday night with everything hinging on teams with short rest really seems like the smart choice.

It's certainly never gone wrong before.

I've Never Rooted Against This Team In My Life Parlay (+322)

Buffalo Bills -11.5, Josh Allen Rushing TD, Josh Allen Over 225 Yards

Believe it or not I'm not attempting to reverse jinx the Bills after my two years of vitriol that I've spilled out into the world when confronted with them. I'm pretty sure if the Dolphins win this game my brother-in-law will find me and ask me if he's that awful that I would go ahead and ruin this season so quickly for him.

No, I actually have confidence in this Bills team and potential back-to-back MVP front runner Josh Allen. Not only is the offense kicking just as much ass as they were last year, they happen to be playing at home against a seriously depressed Dolphins Head Coach who does not inspire confidence as a leader of men.

Usually when you say you wish you were dead to the national media, your players don't really respond to that.

The entire team is a disaster, and I expect this game to be an utter beatdown. I just have to hope it's not so much of a beatdown that Josh gets pulled before the +225 yards passing of this parlay.

Somehow, I think I'm going to be just fine.

💰$100.00 to win $322.82

Bonus Bet

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$200.00 for the season

Note: Not part of the weekly totals. This is a brotherhood bet, a ritual sacrifice to Taranis so he doesn't smite us both.

This is the look of a man who knows he's flying commercial home from Buffalo.

Same-Game Parlay (+541)

• Bills -20.5 alternate spread

• Tua Tagovailoa under 1.5 passing touchdowns

• Dolphins first drive result is a punt

💰 $100.00 to win $541.00

Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!