Oddball: Week 4 NFL Bets

Kirk and Matt get $100 each per week and go head-to-head to see who can light the most money on fire betting the NFL this season.

Matt is going for four-straight winning weeks to open the season, while Kirk is determined to dig out of an early hole. As the world looks on in suspense, the pressure is mounting in this high-stakes competition.

Our rules are simple:

• Each of us gets $100 to bet every week.

• We must bet the entire $100.

• Picks go up Thursday, recaps on Tuesday.

• Only bets that resolve that week (no futures).

• Loser does the TB12 diet for a week

Any weekly profit can be banked and rolled forward. Any portion of the $100 you don’t lose stays in your total, but you can’t reuse it.

Now that the rules preamble is over, let’s get to the picks — and see how many games Matt will bet $11 on to win $10.

Matt's Picks

$134.69 available to bet this week +$34.69 last week +$97.62 for the season

First of all, thanks to everyone who has been reaching out about my scorching hot start to the season. I'm not sure what exactly I'm going to spend my fortune on yet, but it certainly won't be a Russell Wilson jersey. Second of all, my Uncle Jack is super pissed about the Dublin game.

The bozos running the NFL decided to stage a game in Ireland this Sunday, and I’m ticked off. Football belongs in America — the land of brats, beer, and Budweiser commercials — not across the pond where some lad named Declan is eating beans on toast and pretending to care about a first down. And now I’ve gotta start watching football at 9:30 in the morning? Forget it. That’s prime time for me to yank weeds out of the walkway, glare at the neighbor kids for grinding they're skateboards near my mailbox, and sip coffee so black it could make you're cousin Colin finally sprout some chest hair. One game in London a year was already pushing it. Two was treasonous. Now it’s seven? Seven damn games? What’s next, the Super Bowl in Paris with croissants at halftime? Did Karmela Harris sneak in and replace Commissioner Goodell? Wouldn’t shock me — she’s made a career out of stabbing senior citizens in the back. And don’t tell me these potato-sniffers know the rules. They’ll probably clap for fair catches and boo violent hits in between mouthfuls of boiled cabbage. Meanwhile, Susie’s already yelling at me because I’ll be screaming at the TV before she’s done steaming her Sunday cod. Enough is enough. Boycott this circus. Tell Roger, Karmela, or whoever’s in charge these days to take this shamrock sideshow and jam it up they're rear ends. Football is American. Let the Irish stick to there fruity footy, watery whiskey, and poetry about rain. And don’t even get me started on leprechauns. If I wanted to see a tiny man chase something shiny and drop it, I’d just turn on the Lions and watch Jared Goof try to grip a football with his doll-sized hands. USA! USA!

Moneyline Parlay (+184)

Bills Texans Chargers Packers Broncos

I'm going to take a bit longer of a shot than usual. I've jumped out to a decent lead, so I can afford to break out of my shell. And there are several teams on the board this week who I just don't see losing. I'm pairing them all together in a moneyline parlay that has about the same chance as going well as the Mets' weekend series in Miami with the postseason on the line.

Bills: They are favored by more than two touchdowns against a winless, hapless quarterback and a clueless head coach. Unless Josh Allen gets carted off in the first quarter, we don't even really need to watch this one.

Texans: Their sputtering offense might not be able to score enough points to cover a 7.5-point spread, but their defense has been completely lights out. That does not bode well for Cam Ward (who gifted the Colts a pick-six on the last week's opening drive) or Brian Callahan (who somehow took a delay of game penalty after a timeout). The Texans will get the victory in this battle of winless AFC South squads.

Chargers: The emotional hedge continues as I will once again be betting against my New York Football Giants. With apologies to newly-named starter Jaxson Dart, switching quarterbacks is kind of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic at this point. The Giants defense was handled easily by Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes. Now they face Justin Herbert who has been playing better than all three of those guys. They can't stop the run and they can't pass protect at all. Brian Daboll is desperately trying to save his job by throwing Dart to the wolves against a nightmare pass rush and an opposing head coach who has gone 8-2 against rookie quarterbacks (including a perfect 4-0 last season).

Packers: The Cowboys are an absolute mess right now, and betting the Packers is basically free money. Dallas’ offensive line is held together by old chewing gum, Dak has no CeeDee Lamb, and he’s about to be chased around all night by his old teammate Micah Parsons. In back-to-back games, the Cowboys defense has been cooked by Russell Wilson who can't move and Caleb Williams who can't read the playbook. If those guys can light them up, Hammermill Love is going to fill the stat sheets. The Packers are a top-tier team with something to prove after an ugly Browns loss, while Dallas is spiraling toward the NFC basement (see you soon, Giants).

Broncos: The Bengals looked... quite bad... with Jake Browning under center, and Denver is built to make life miserable for him. The Broncos’ pass rush just bullied Justin Herbert, so Browning behind a leaky offensive line doesn’t stand a chance, especially with Patrick Surtain erasing Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati can’t run the ball either. Like, at all. On the other side, Bo Nix has a clean pocket, a soft matchup, and a run game ready to chew up yards against a Bengals defense stripped of talent. Denver has urgency coming off back-to-back losses, while Cincinnati's season already looks gloomier than James Comey's retirement plans. This has blowout written all over it.

💰$100.00 to win $184.58

Same Game Parlay (+1602)

Jaxson Dart 250+ Passing Yards Jaxson Dart 3+ Passing Touchdowns

Just a little insurance policy. Call it a hedge for my emotional hedge. Call it hope. Call it what you will. Just don't call Russell Wilson's number.

💰$4.69 to win $75.18

Dublin Dud (+148)

No Touchdowns in the 1st Quarter

Carson Wentz and Old Man Rodgers are boring enough on American soil. Now they'll be playing at 9:30 in the morning in Dublin. These games are notoriously slow starting. I think. I didn't do any actual research on this. But let's throw a few bucks on the first 15 minutes of this one being relatively uneventful. I'll listen to it on the radio as I run through my gauntlet of Sunday morning chores in an attempt to earn good betting karma and a few hours of guilt-free time with my soulmate Scott Hanson.

💰$30.00 to win $44.40

Kirk's Picks

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$200.00 for the season

Please hold on a minute, just trying to get out of the river of crap that is my gambling year so far. And let's just say the $200 I'm down in this competition is a drop in the bucket of the aforementioned crap river.

Moving on.

Please Run To Save Me Parlay (+767)

Jahmyr Gibbs ATS, Bucky Irving ATS, Omarion Hampton ATS, Jonathan Taylor ATS

The perk of waiting until Thursday to place bets is thank God I can throw up my hail Mary ATS parlays.

I like all of these dudes to score in their matchups. I mean that's obvious, but my new strategy is to not bet on WR anymore. They are prima donnas and when their QB's hate them they are iced out. RB's are the heroes who push through the trenches of big boys to bring us joy.

Surely, I'm on to something here.

💰$50.00 to win $383.73

Revenge of the Butt (+274)

Giants +6.5, Chiefs +2.5

It's no secret to the readers of this site I harbor an intense, and some would say, over the top dislike of the Harbaugh Brothers. Really, I dislike Jim about ten times more than John. A guy who only talks about football, compares everything to football, and I would contend, is the definition of over the top.

Anyone who makes their whole personality about one thing is played out, and I'm tired of it.

'sips cocktail'

I made a play against these two bros last year and it blew up in my face. Some would say, hey Kirk, you're betting against the sudden Super Bowl darling Chargers? You're betting on the Giants?

Some would say, you're betting against the Ravens? But Kirk aren't they playing against an awful vibes team in the Chiefs?

Now some in this scenario is actually all, but I don't care. I'm due damn't! I worked for over 2 minutes on this image last year and I deserve to be compensated for my actions.

💰$50.00 to win $137.24

Bonus Bet

$100.00 available to bet this week -$100.00 last week -$300.00 for the season

Note: Not part of the weekly totals. This is a brotherhood bet, a ritual sacrifice to Taranis so he doesn't smite us both.

Ya gotta believe!

Same-Game Parlay (+205)

• Sam Darnold 200+ receiving yards

• Marvin Harrison Jr. to record a 20+ yard reception

• Trey McBride 5+ receptions

💰 $100.00 to win $205.00

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