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Matt lost the regular season contest and now needs to take a pointless boring drive to Ithaca. But there's still some football to be played, so here are some picks just for funzies.
The Wild Card round is one of the great sports weekends of the year. We would argue they should do away with the Monday game and just give us wall-to-wall action on Saturday and Sunday. But we're not going to complain about three-straight days of playoff football.
We're going to record our picks against the spread for every game this postseason and see who does better (bragging rights and maybe some side bets to be wagered).
Then we'll also give you some weird Bonus Bets that we're teaming up on and track how we do with those. Enjoy the games!
Matt's Picks
0-0 this postseason
Chargers -2.5
If this was a normal season, I'd be all over the Texans. They looked like crap in the back half of the season, but I love taking the home underdogs that nobody else wants to pick. However, this isn't a normal season. Favorites have been cleaning up. Plus, there are a couple of matchups I like the Chargers to exploit here. The Texans love to rush the passer, but the Chargers have an awesome offensive line to counter it. Additionally, the Texans secondary is really banged up and Justin Herbert loves to push the ball down field. Combine with Harbaugh's knack for shortening the game and holding onto the ball, and you've got a recipe for playoff success. Did you know the 2024 Chargers became just the 3rd team in NFL history to turn the ball over less than 10 times in a season? Pretty good.
Steelers +9.5
This game starts at 8:00PM on Saturday. By 8:07PM it is very possible I will be cursing myself for wagering on Russell Wilson on the road in a playoff game. But come on! This is too many points. These are division rivals who play extremely competitive games against each other. Yes, in Week 16, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Baltimore by 17. But that was with no George Pickens and it was the Steelers' third game in 13 days. Reports are indicated that Zay Flowers is doubtful to go in this one for the Ravens. Without a deep threat to worry about, the Steelers will be able to stack the box to contain the Lamar/Derrick Henry running game. Look for T.J. Watt to be a factor and for the Steelers to keep it close enough to cover.
Bills -8.5
Quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a quarterback with playoff experience are 19-37-1 (34%) against the spread. Quarterbacks are also 6-19 straight up as road underdogs in their first playoff start. This is a tall order for Bo Nix who will have to go up to Orchard Park and outscore the explosive Buffalo offense in front of the Bills Mafia. All credit to Nix and Payton who were a really fun surprise this season and have looked excellent at times. But the ride ends here for them. The back door definitely scares me a bit in this one, but the Bills should take care of business.
Eagles -4.5
The last time the Packers beat a playoff team was October 20th against the Texans. Since then, every time they play anybody good (mostly inside their own division), they crap the bed. In fact, their only division win this season was at home against the crappy Bears. That doesn't look like a Super Bowl contender to me. Especially without Christian Watson and a shaky Jordan "Hammermill" Love hobbling around under center. The Eagles, like it or not (I don't), are the real deal. Their defense is absolutely excellent. They convert 4th downs whenever they want. And they have a running back on a quest to ruin my life. Blow out city.
Buccaneers -3.0
Apologies to Jayden Daniels. You were super duper fun to watch all season. You will be back in the playoffs many times. But you're gonna lose this one. Baker Mayfield has been here before and has looked great. He upset the Eagles and put the fear of god into the Lions last year in the playoffs. I also just don't trust the Washington defense. It's been their weak link all year and it's understandable — they are very young and inexperienced on that side of the ball. But that's not a recipe for success in the playoffs against the Bucs offense that ranked 4th in points per game this season.
Rams +1.5
My heart goes out to everyone being displaced by these crazy fires in Los Angeles this week. You guys deserve some good karma and your Rams will be fucking fired up to deliver it. It looks like this game might get moved to Arizona if conditions on the ground don't improve in LA. That's an interesting wrinkle, but it doesn't scare me off. I cashed my Rams NFC West ticket at +390 and I'm still sitting on Conference Champs (+2800) and Super Bowl (+6000) wagers. America deserves a feel good story after the diarrhea dumpster that was 2024. LFG Rams!
Kirk's Picks
0-0 this postseason
Chargers -2.5
Oh boy, the worst game between two miserable offensive teams first in the slate!
While I used to resent this perpetual Texans 4:30 game every Saturday of Wildcard weekend I have new perspective.
That comes with being a parent. You see, now I can totally ignore this game to spend time with my kids, and get points as 'a good dad' for putting my kids over football.
I will then cash in these points for a game that actually matters down the line. I am definitely the first to ever think this up.
I like the Chargers here since I'm forced to choose as their defense is solid and Herbert looks good of late. Don't like it though and I won't actually waste money here. Fun!
Ravens -9.5
Have you seen Mike Tomlin of late? Have you seen the Steelers offense? Russel Wilson?
I think Lamar and the Ravens lay down the hammer and bury their old nemesis for good. Steelers defense can't stay on the field all night. They've been worn down each of the 4 weeks of their losing streak. Start strong, end with a whimper. Going against Lamar in MVP form (I'm betting he finally gets the yips off his resume) spells doom.
Bills -8.5
As much as it pains me, this one is a lock. I'm thrilled to be rooting for a team that is so beloved by so many. Josh Allen has a 49% chance to win MVP. Congrats to Bo Nix for a solid rookie season. And for all the memes. Good luck next year Bo. You have a great name. You'll be just fine.
Bo.
Eagles -4.5
Buccaneers -3.0
Shake and Bake is the only thing holding this Bucs team together. Well, their veteran receivers, namely Mike Evans, give them a solid edge of experience as well. My point is that Baker has willed this team to the finish line. He almost single handedly won an additional 3 games this year, at least, that his team fucked up.
I say all that and take them here laying the points. Commanders have looked even shakier all year and a rookie QB in a road playoff game getting only 3 points is an easy choice. I will be dumping funds into this bet and can't wait to collect and buy myself a lifetime membership of the jelly of the month club.
Rams +1.5
Did I recently bet on Sam Darnold to own his opponents and win me hundreds of dollars? Yes. Did I do that multiple times this year? Also yes.
Doesn't fucking matter! IT'S THE PLAYOFFS! PACK YOUR SHIT SAM! CONGRATS, YOU ARE NOW A NY GIANT!
Bonus Picks
Whatever the fuck we want to bet this week -$100.00 last week +$0.00 for the regular season
6-Point Teaser (-120)
Bills -2.5 Rams +7.5
Two sides we both like that just so happen to be perfect teaser legs. We'll take the Bills down to 2.5 to protect against any garbage time shenanigans and spot ourselves a touchdown plus the hook with the Rams (even though they won't need it)!
💰 $240.00 to win $200.00
Moneyline Parlay (+211)
Bucs Rams
We're betting on plenty of playoff experience in Baker and Stafford, both playing at home against quarterbacks who have zero playoff starts. As Baker infamously said in his Progressive Insurance commercial before leading the Browns to a 1-7 home record, "Protect your house"!
💰 $160.00 to win $337.92
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!