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Oddball 2026: Week 10 NFL Bets
Week 10 brings ransom notes, insect labor disputes, and ugly bets. Can the boys hit a fourth straight Thursday-night friendship wager?
Oddball is our weekly NFL gambling competition where we each get $100 every week and try to outdo each other. The loser must watch an entire playoff game alone at Outback Steakhouse in a suit and tie, order a Bloomin’ Onion for one, and tell the server he’s celebrating something special. Let's take a look at how we did this week!
Matt's Week 9 Recap
Wagered | $109.92 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | $55.57 |
Season Profit or Loss | $32.51 |
✅ Jaguars (-9.5) won $12.50 ✅ Colts (+5.5) won $14.15 ❌ Dolphins (+7.0) lost $20.00
✅ Panthers (+8.5) & Seahawks (-2.5) won $26.19 ✅ Bucs (+6.5) won $22.73
Please nobody notify the IRS about my double-digit win this week. I really don't want to get audited. Let's open up the mailbag to distract the feds with 20,000 words from our completely real readers.
From: Anonymous Subject: If you ever want to see Justin Herbert again We have the real Justin Herbert. The man you’ve been watching is a malfunctioning animatronic quarterback controlled by Grok Bot. Frankly, we’re surprised it took you this long to notice. His eyes don’t track defenders, his internal clock is broken, and whenever someone applies pressure, he folds into the fetal position and starts muttering about DEI. If you want Herbert returned safely, Mike McDaniel must return the Pioneer DDJ-1000 controller, two fog machines, and the aux cord he stole from our Honda Civic. You have until kickoff. No police. No analytics consultants. No pre-snap motion designed to confuse the authorities. You have been warned. |
Jesus, Mike. Just give them their damn DJ equipment. A franchise quarterback is worth considerably more than a used fog machine and whatever terrible remix of “Levels” you were planning to play in the locker room this weekend.
Before making the exchange, however, I recommend requesting proof of life. Ask Herbert to identify an unblocked pass rusher. The guy currently playing quarterback for you clearly cannot.
From: Uncle Jack Subject: GOOF STRIKES AGAIN Matthew, I have been warning you about this little cyberterrorist for years. You never listen until you're money is gone. My friend Tony from the plant is still picking up the pieces after Goof bullied his niece out of Cal. She had to enroll in cosmetology school and move into Tony’s spare bedroom. Now Tony has to serve as her practice mannequin because he’s afraid that refusing will damage her confidence even further. Monday he came to the plant with emo bangs. Tuesday it was a man bun. Wednesday she gave him waist-length extensions that got caught under his hard hat. The union steward thought he’d joined Fleetwood Mac. Yesterday she tried something called a “textured wolf cut.” Tony looks like he lost a fight with a weed whacker, but he keeps telling everyone he loves it. This poor bastard used to rebuild industrial compressors. Now he spends his lunch break watching Olaplex tutorials because Jared Goof changed his niece’s LinkedIn title to Regional Vice President of Diarrhea at Imodium Labs. Susie says I need to let the whole thing go. Susie also thinks paprika is “a little aggressive” and served me an unseasoned chicken breast straight from the crockpot, so forgive me if I don’t trust her judgment. Congratulations on losing money to the man who destroyed an innocent family. If you need a loan, I’ll give you $20 at four percent interest. That’s still less than Tony spends every week on volumizing mousse. |
Thanks, Uncle Jack. Please tell Tony that emo bangs are a sign of emotional intelligence and superior gambling prowess. I know from experience.
I’ll join the class-action lawsuit against Jared Goof if Tony’s niece can find a way to hide the gray hair the Giants quarterback room is giving me. In the meantime, losing this bet cost less than a salon visit and gave the repressed emo kid inside me another reason to brood, so I consider it money well spent.
From: BortlesService69@gmail.com Subject: DUUUUUUUUVAL The Jaguars are going to the Super Bowl, and I have already started raising money for the trip. So far, the fund contains $43.70, a Dave & Buster’s card with 1,800 tickets on it, and several catalytic converters that my cousin Ricky found in the parking lot of the abandoned Regency Square Mall. Here is the rest of our fundraising plan:
My girlfriend says airfare, tickets and a hotel could cost ten grand. That seems fake. You can sleep legally in any Bass Pro Shop if you wear enough camouflage and wait until after closing to bathe in the fish tank. If the Jags make it, do you guys want to ride with us? The truck technically seats five, although one seat is currently occupied by an empty propane tank that Ricky keeps meaning to exchange. LANK LAWRENCE IS TAKING US ALL THE WAY! —Khody from Duval County, FL |
Khody, we admire your enthusiasm, but please do not donate anyone else’s plasma without their consent. I gave Kirk the same advice after he lost his ninth straight parlay this week.
At current Super Bowl prices, you’re approximately 37 catalytic converters short. Fortunately, if Lank Lawrence keeps going over clean every Thursday night, Tony Khan might book him for an empty-arena match during halftime. It’d be hard to top The Rock and Mankind’s 1999 Halftime Heat classic, but Lank has been getting exactly the right amount of heat lately to pull it off.
From: lairdoftheflies@yahoo.com Subject: Sorry to "bug" you... Dear Oddball, As the ladybug who landed on Brandon Aiyuk’s shoe before the NFC Championship Game, I need to clarify several misconceptions regarding my services.
My original blessing covered one football game or the duration of one molt, whichever came first. It did not include protection from contract disputes, year-long hostage negotiations, abandoning the team, league reinstatement proceedings or Kyle Shanahan’s electrical substation.
Nevertheless, now that Brandon has returned, the 49ers have contacted my representatives about a possible reunion. I remain open to negotiations under the following conditions:
The organization says it currently has no plans to play Brandon. Perhaps that is because Kyle Shanahan never paid the required spiritual licensing fee. His credit score in the supernatural realm is already hovering around 410.
Good luck is not free. Neither is insect labor. —Laird the Ladybug, Former 49ers Good-Luck Charm and Current Free Agent |
Laird, you may be the only supernatural entity powerful enough to challenge Taranis, so I encourage the 49ers to meet your demands immediately.
Just don’t land on Christian McCaffrey. His lower body has endured enough trauma, and I’m not convinced his remaining ligaments can support your weight.
From: skattman44@nygiants.com Subject: ME SEND EMAIL TO MY FRIENDS CAM SAD NO PLAY FOOTBALL SUNDAY. CAM WAKE UP EARLY AND PUT ON EYE BLACK. EAT 4 EGG SANDWICHES. HEADBUTT HOT STOVE TO GET READY. THEN DOC SAY CAM HAMSTRING NO WORK GOOD ENOUGH TO RUN BALL. CAM NO UNDERSTAND. CAM NO PUT ANY HAM ON THE EGG SANDWICHES. CAM WATCH BLUE TEAM WIN AGAIN. MUCH HAPPY. SCORE EVEN LOW ENOUGH FOR CAM TO ADD TOGETHER. CAM EXCITED TO RUN BALL AGAIN. DOC SAYS NOT TIL GAME DAY. CAM SAYS EVERY DAY IS GAME DAY. DOC LEAVE ROOM. ALSO CAM FINISH WHOLE JAR OF PEANUT BUTTER WITH TINY PLASTIC SPOON. GO GIANTS! —CAM S. FROM WHERE AM I? |
Hell yeah. Go Big Blue. Excited to see you back out there on Thursday night. Just remember to stretch your ham before kickoff. The sandwich is optional.
Kirk's Week 9 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | ($100.00) |
Season Profit or Loss | ($900.00) |
❌ Jonathan Taylor & Javonte Williams & Chuba Hubbard & Jonah Coleman (ATS parlay) lost $100.00
It could have been worse! I could have gone 0-4 on this parlay. Going 1-4 gives me the confidence that no matter how much dumb shit I do in life, at least some of it will turn out okay.
insert copium
Did someone say copium? Well since you brought it up let me show you the only thing that I got right this season, backed up with proof.
As we sit here today I am only one Chargers loss away from being net zero on the season (I've totally lost other bets outside of this and the competition but please don't tell my wife).
There is some kind of karmic justice at work here. I think the fact that I basked in the glory of the inevitable failure of the Chargers organization, a little too much, the gambling gods have seen fit to take me down a peg, or nine, and mete out justice.
I am hoping for a Monday night Ravens win, and a rebalancing of the scales. For renewal. For hope.
Praise Taranis, for he is merciful.
editor's note: reminder the bet above doesn't count in this competition I'm just a sad, sad man.
Bonus Bet Week 9 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | $100.00 |
Season Profit or Loss | $1010.25 |
❌ Same game parlay (+469) lost $50.00
Derrick Henry 2+ receptions ❌
Parker Washington 50+ receiving yards ✅
Bhayshul Tuten any time touchdown scorer ✅
Turns out, when you run the wild cat offense, you can't pass to yourself! Fuck!
✅ Jaguars (-20.5) won $150.00
Thanks to the split bet we keep our streak alive. There may be something to our dreadful individual performances this year (well, one a little sad, one shockingly awful) and the fact that our cooperative bets are off and running this season.
But let's not read into that. Do not attempt to understand Thursday night gambling and you will be better for it. Shut off your brain and trust.
Matt's Week 10 Picks
Available | $155.57 |
Wagered | $155.57 |
Season Profit or Loss | $32.51 |
Somehow I survived Week 9 unscathed, despite the fact that only one favorite lost outright. That poor performance by my beloved stinky underdogs can only mean one thing for Week 10:
Browns (+4.5)
Against the spread (-105)
The Browns are 5-4 and the Texans are 3-5. So naturally, Houston is laying more than a field goal on the road against a team with a very frisky defense. Either the sportsbooks know something I don't, or they're begging the public to wager against the NFL's most morally indefensible revenge-game narrative.
Deshaun Watson has officially been named Cleveland’s starter against his former team. This would normally be where I discuss how motivated a quarterback might be to embarrass the franchise that gave up on him, except Watson’s relationship with accountability makes it difficult to determine who exactly believes they were wronged here. The obvious concern is Cleveland’s offensive line allowing Watson to accumulate a league-high sack total. But the Browns defense has been legitimately good at home, and 4.5 points gives Watson enough room to take six sacks, wrap himself up in a towel, and sneak creepily through the backdoor. Besides, Kirk and I remain the proud holders of Browns-to-win-the-AFC tickets at +10000. Are we delusional? Absolutely. But you don’t abandon a long-term investment simply because the underlying company is morally bankrupt, poorly managed, and losing money. That’s what retirement accounts in the year of our lord 2026 are for. Look for Todd Monken, a.k.a. the Marty Funkhouser of the NFL, to corner DeMeco Ryans at midfield before kickoff and tell him a filthy nine-minute joke involving a priest, a massage table, and an alternate spread. Ryans will stare at him in horror, Monken will complain that nobody can take a joke anymore, and Cleveland will ride the awkwardness to a cover.
Give me the Browns, the points, and another week of updating increasingly deranged Excel models showing how Kirk and I can hedge our 100-to-1 ticket in the Wild Card Round.
💰 $30.00 to win $28.57
Falcons (+3.5)
Against the spread (-120)
Can you smell that? It’s the stench of dead Dirty Birds wafting across the Atlantic after Atlanta’s blowout loss to the Bengals in Madrid last week. But you should know by now that nothing makes me feel more alive than betting on a team immediately after it humiliates itself on another continent.
This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot. Atlanta is coming off an international disgrace, while Kansas City just rolled over a Jets team whose coaching staff appeared to be calling plays from the International Space Station. Everyone watched those games and reached the same reasonable conclusion: The Falcons stink and the Chiefs are back. That’s precisely why I want Atlanta and the hook.
Normally, I’d be worried about the travel and jet lag, but the Falcons sleepwalked through the entire game, so I’m not convinced their internal clocks ever left Eastern Time. Half the roster probably woke up Monday morning wondering why their luggage smelled like paella.
Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in practice despite his elbow twisting like my bowels after I fell for Wingstop’s 30-wings-for-$30 promotion. The Chiefs might claim he’s fine, but I bumped my arm against the corner of the refrigerator last Tuesday and still wince every time I reach for the almond milk. I cannot imagine Mahomes is operating at full capacity after being hit repeatedly by 280-pound men, regardless of what Andy Reid’s injury report claims.
Give me 3.5 deeply uncomfortable points with the embarrassed team against the injured quarterback. The Falcons may not win, but they can absolutely keep this close enough to ruin my afternoon on the final possession.
💰 $30.00 to win $25.00
Cardinals (+9.5)
Against the spread (-110)
I considered posting a GIF of someone vomiting and moving directly to the next pick. Unfortunately, Oddball’s rigorous editorial standards require me to provide at least a flimsy justification before wagering actual money on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are trash. The Cardinals are injured, overmatched, and about as appetizing as Aunt Susie’s steamed cod. But they’re also a divisional home underdog catching nearly double digits against a Rams team that has run out of wide receivers.
Puka Nacua remains out, Davante Adams isn’t expected back yet, and Jordan Whittington just went on IR. Los Angeles is now relying on Konata Mumpfield, who sounds less like an NFL receiver and more like the groundskeeper at a haunted English estate who warns you not to enter the east wing after sundown.
The Rams have no reason to throw the ball all over Arizona. Protect it, run repeatedly, and escape Glendale with a boring 24-17 win before another receiver spontaneously combusts in the desert sun. I’m not betting on the Cardinals to be good. I’m betting that Sean McVay has no interest in teaching his remaining receivers the entire playbook just to run up the score on a team that already beat him 18-16 by kicking six field goals in Week 6.
💰 $22.50 to win $20.46
Steelers (+3.5)
Against the spread (-110)
Welcome to the Mike Tomlin Honorary Rah-Rah Bet of the Year, awarded annually to a rested Pittsburgh team catching the hook in an AFC North rock fight.
If Tomlin were still coaching the Steelers, I’d make this my largest wager of the season, liquidate the girls’ college funds, and start waving a Terrible Towel around the sportsbook. Unfortunately, Mike McCarthy is in charge now, so I’ll hold back enough cash for groceries and whatever awful plastic toys they strategically place in the checkout aisle to financially exploit exhausted parents.
Pittsburgh is 6-2, rested after its bye, and was playing some genuinely good football before the break. Cincinnati is also 6-2, but it just played in Spain and now has to return home for a physical divisional game after flying across the Atlantic. The Bengals deserve to be favored at home, but asking them to win by four feels excessive.
Yes, Joe Burrow is averaging five touchdowns per game in November. That’s mildly concerning. But I don’t need Pittsburgh to completely shut him down. I just need this to resemble every other AFC North game: three hours of personal fouls, punt coverage, and fans with neck tattoos screaming at each other in the stands before somebody wins on a last-second field goal.
These games always seem to finish within three points, and I’ll gladly take the hook with the rested team. This is either my strongest position of the week or further evidence that I inexplicably loathe the Cincinnati Bengals.
Probably both.
💰 $37.50 to win $34.09
6-Point Teaser (-134)
Bills -1.5 Seahawks -0.5
Two large favorites begging to be teased through multiple key numbers. What could possibly go wrong?
Buffalo moves from -7.5 to -1.5, taking us through seven and three against the hapless Jets. I generally love divisional home underdogs, but every rule has an exception, and that exception is apparently any team coached by Aaron Glenn. The Jets defense can’t stop anyone, and their head coach already has one foot in the grave while executive recruiters flood his InMail inbox with exciting opportunities in trampoline-park management.
I don’t particularly want to lay 7.5 points on the road in a divisional game. Asking Josh Allen to beat this team by two feels considerably more reasonable.
Then we’ll move Seattle from -6.5 to -0.5, essentially turning it into a moneyline wager. Sam Darnold remains out, and Drew Lock is attempting to play through elbow and oblique injuries, which is concerning because those are two of the body parts quarterbacks traditionally use. Normally, placing my financial future in the hands of an injured mortal enemy would violate several personal policies. However, Lock finally broke down and sent me a handwritten apology for the 2024 parlay disaster, so he’s temporarily off my shit list. Moving the line below one means we can maintain a cautious truce without rekindling an actual friendship.
Fortunately, Las Vegas has crossed the Mendoza Line in the most literal way possible. The Raiders traded Kirk Cousins, punted on the season, and will give Fernando Mendoza his first professional start. Mendoza may eventually become a good NFL quarterback, but making your first start against the defending Super Bowl champions’ defense is like taking your first driving lesson in Midtown Manhattan. Watch out! A Citi Bike is towing a hot dog cart across Sixth Avenue, six NYPD officers are chasing a pickpocket in clown makeup through the bus lane, and a headless Elmo is pounding on your windshield demanding $20! Good luck identifying the blitz, Fernando.
This feels like a nice, relaxing, sweat-free Sunday. When have the Bills or Drew Lock ever wronged us before?
💰 $35.57 to win $26.68
Kirk's Week 10 Picks
Available | $100.00 |
Wagered | $100.00 |
Season Profit or Loss | ($900.00) |
I'll Be Your Huckleberry (+502)
Jags -10.5, 49ers -4.5, Bengals ML
💰 $100.00 to win $502.69
The Guys' Week 10 Bonus Bet
Same game parlay (+321)
Cam Skattebo 40+ rushing yards
Arvell Reese 1+ sacks
Over 34.5 total points
The first rule of the Litter Box Method: Do not question the Litter Box Method. Trust the process, close your eyes, and scoop like you've never scooped before.
We know from that cringeworthy pet-food commercial that Cam Skattebo is a dog guy, but that won’t stop him from kicking sand and taking names tonight.
💰 $100.00 to win $321.63
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!
