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Oddball 2026: Week 4 NFL Bets
Week 4 NFL picks against the spread, featuring home underdogs, a cautious moneyline parlay, another doomed teaser, and Kirk Cousins’ In-N-Out diet.
Oddball is our weekly NFL gambling competition where we each get $100 every week and try to outdo each other. The loser must watch an entire playoff game alone at Outback Steakhouse in a suit and tie, order a Bloomin’ Onion for one, and tell the server he’s celebrating something special. Let's take a look at how we did this week!
Matt's Week 3 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | $82.19 |
Season Profit or Loss | ($21.56) |
✅ Falcons (+4.5) won $9.62 ✅ Jaguars (-2.5) won $14.83 ✅ Raiders (+3.0) won $25.47 ✅ Ravens (-2.5) won $13.52 ✅ Teaser: Colts (+1.5) & Broncos (+8.5) won $18.75
After a perfect gambling week, it felt disingenuous to complain about anyone. So I skipped Dipshits of the Week and opened up my inbox for an exclusive mailbag. Here's what our completely real readers sent us this week.
What’s the best way to get from Manhattan to MetLife Stadium for a Giants game? —J.J. from Minneapolis
Well, J.J., my first recommendation would be to stay home and watch from the couch. The view is better, there’s no inclement weather, the bathroom line is shorter, and you can always flip over to RedZone if the quarterback play becomes too unwatchable.
However, if you absolutely must attend because your direct deposit depends on it, take New Jersey Transit from Penn Station and transfer at Secaucus. It’s marginally less miserable than the Port Authority bus, and you won’t risk getting trapped in the Lincoln Tunnel next to some guy named Augie who keeps alternating between vomiting into a ShopRite bag and belting out “Paradise by the Dashboard Light” at full volume.
Welcome to New Jersey, only the strong survive.
KYLE SHANAHAN, YOUR SOUL SHALL FEED THE DENIZENS OF THE UNDERWORLD. YOUR SACRIFICES OF BROTHERS EVANS, WILLIAMS, GREENLAW, BOSA, ROBINSON, KIRK, TONGES, STRIBLING AND PEARSALL HAVE NOT SATIATED OUR HUNGER. YOU SHALL LIVE TO REGRET THE DAY, IN THE KINGDOM OF NEW ORLEANS, WHEN YOU SPURNED THE VOICE FROM BEYOND THE VEIL. ELECTRICAL FORCES SHALL PURSUE YOU ACROSS CONTINENTS, FROM FIELDS NEAR TO FIELDS AFAR. SURRENDER BROTHER PURDY, OR OUR HUNGER SHALL GROWWWWWW. —Taranis from Parts Unknown
Always nice to hear from you, Taranis. Thanks for finally permitting me to win a teaser.
I’ll probably never know what Kyle Shanahan did outside that voodoo spirit house in New Orleans in February 2017. Maybe he mocked a gris-gris. Maybe he refused to tip. Maybe a disembodied voice told him to run the ball with a 28-3 lead and he arrogantly dismissed it as “not part of the game script.”
Whatever happened, Shanahan presided over the most infamous collapse in Super Bowl history later that evening, and the evidence has only piled up since: catastrophic injuries, contract hostage negotiations, electrical substations, two more Super Bowl losses, a fourth-string quarterback in the NFC Championship Game and, most disturbingly, Shanahan’s own frightening car accident. At this point, the curse theory feels statistically more plausible than coincidence. It's gotten so bad that the 49ers are now leaving injured players on their 53-man roster because they've run out of IR spots.
Fortunately, Brock Purdy has been playing his ancestral flute before games, which appears to generate a small anti-curse force field around his body. Unfortunately, its effective radius ends approximately six inches beyond his locker, leaving the rest of the organization exposed to electrical forces and spontaneously exploding soft tissue.
Kyle should probably return to New Orleans, apologize to the spirit house and leave a signed Purdy jersey on the steps. Maybe Taranis accepts sacrificial memorabilia.
ay yo, what up, ill crew? hope you fools had better things to do than watch last thursday’s game. that shit was uglier than claire danes cryin in homeland. ya boy is gettin pretty nervous out here. he’s got three episodes of cape fear loaded onto his surface tablet, but if j-love don’t stop playin the sax and start focusin on the offense, ya boy might have to go in before he finds out what max cady’s gonna do to poor amy adams. speakin of rough watches, that accent needs a few reps with the practice squad. anywho, send some positive vibes up here to wisconsin. ya boy could’ve sworn he heard that haint taranis sniffin around in the bowels of lambeau the other night. prayers up. —Tyrod from Green Bay
Don’t worry, Tyrod. Coach LaFool hasn’t made a meaningful adjustment in two and a half seasons. He’s not going to bench his $220 million quarterback just because you briefly looked up from your Surface during the fourth quarter. Your viewing schedule is safe.
As for those noises beneath Lambeau, relax. Taranis wants Brother Purdy. You’re probably safe unless a team doctor comes near you with a syringe. Prayers up, buddy.
Matt, I’m sorry I called you a snowflake and sent you that AI video of Jason Dart conducting ICE raids with President Trump. Now that Dart is out for the season, will you please start publishing my emails on the site again? My friend Tony from the plant keeps asking when my quarterback rankings are coming out. I saw you won that Ravens bet in the final seven seconds. I mistakenly told Susie the game was heading to overtime, and she was up my ass about the steamed cod getting cold, as if being served at temperature could possibly save that abomination. Whatever happened to a good, old-fashioned Sunday roast? Thanks to those California hippies, beef is outlawed and pork costs $77 a pound. Anyway, other than being played in Brazil, which is an affront to the very spirit of AMERICAN football, it was a damn good game. Too bad Brian Schlottenweiner drank too many caipirinhas and ruined it. He looked more confused on the sideline than you're cousin Colin does whenever someone asks him to put on closed-toe shoes. Amazing luck for Baltimore. They escaped with a regulation win, and Lavar Jackson didn’t even get pinkeye from all those scantily clad señoritas strutting around Copacabana Beach. I gotta go watch Hannity. He’s doing a story about how Marco Rubio’s pet frog was denied a small-business loan, but Hunter Biden’s salamander got $4 million. Don’t let these commies come for you're government handouts! —Jack from Stratford, CT
I’m glad to see Uncle Jack is doing well. I started to worry that C.J. Stroud’s recent slump might finally cause him to burst an artery.
And yes, that Ravens game was really something. They scored at the buzzer and won by exactly three, meaning my decision to buy the line from -3.5 to -2.5 actually mattered. This may be the first time in my life that's worked out for me.
One for the history books. Uncle Jack’s quarterback rankings, however, remain under editorial review.
I’m sorry about my client’s shit-eating grin. —Matthew Stafford’s dentist
You should be! Those porcelain high beams were out of control after the Rams beat up on a shell-shocked Giants team that lost their franchise quarterback on the opening drive.
Funny how quickly they dimmed once the preseason Super Bowl favorites fell to 1-2. Congratulations, Matthew: Your lone victory came against the corpse of Jameis Winston, who spent the offseason getting bloated on Old Bay and filming sponsored content at the World Cup. Actually, you know what? I might bring back Dipshits of the Week just for you.
FINALLY… THE ROCK HAS COME BACK TO JACKSONVILLE! And The Rock has returned for one reason: to answer the question on everybody’s mind. Will The Rock team up with the fastest-rising, highest-flying, humidity-defying superstar in sports entertainment… Lank Lawrence? Lank, bring that long, golden, shampoo-commercial hair down to The Rock’s ring! Look at this man! It’s ninety degrees with eleven thousand percent humidity. Everybody in Jacksonville looks like they just crawled out of a swamp, but Lank Lawrence is standing there with that beautiful golden mane flowing like a majestic stallion! The hotter it gets, the wetter it gets—and the stronger Lank Lawrence gets! So, Lank, you want The Rock as your partner? IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT YOU WANT! Because this isn’t about what Lank wants. It’s about what the millions… AND MILLIONS… of The Rock’s fans want! And they want to see The Rock and Lank Lawrence lay the SmackDown on the New Age Outlaws! Road Dogg, you can flap your gums all night. Billy Gunn, you can grease yourself up, flex in the mirror and admire your own ass until the building closes. But those Tag Team Championships belong to The Rock and Lank Lawrence now. You two jabronis just haven’t handed them over yet. Next week on RAW, Lank Lawrence is going to climb to the top rope, let that golden hair blow in the Florida breeze and come crashing down harder than Drake Maye’s fall from grace. Then The Rock will grab whichever New Age Outlaw is still conscious, check him directly into the SmackDown Hotel, walk him down Know Your Role Boulevard and hang a big neon NO VACANCY sign over his candy ass! IF YOU SMELLLLLLL WHAT THE ROCK… AND LANK… ARE COOKING! —Dwayne from Miami
I can’t speak for Lank, but after Sunday’s performance, I assume he’ll accept. After spending his first five seasons working dark matches, Jacksonville’s favorite AEW jobber might finally be getting his main-event push. With seven touchdowns in three weeks, Lank Lawrence could be ready to headline WrestleMania.
Kirk's Week 3 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | ($100.00) |
Season Profit or Loss | ($300.00) |
❌ Bills (-20.5) lost $100
I'm feeling a bit off.
It's like when Neo sees the cat twice in The Matrix and says déjà vu.
I am the exact same person. I am betting in the same exact manner. Yet it's not just losing a bet which is fine and happens about 49% of the time. It's the extreme manner in which my bets seem to be losing, and the fact that the gambling gods are clearly punishing me for something.
I just saw the Odyessy and the hell that Odysseus went through is about equal to what I've experienced these past three weeks. I think that's fair to say, I really do.
Now you may be saying, "Kirk, you bet an alternate spread of -20.5, you know you are still an asshole right"?
Fair assessment as always! (from a bunch of cowards)
For those who might have missed this Bills/Chargers game let me just give you some brief brain nuggets:
Josh Allen went from Superman to just man. He opened with two awful picks to start the game and immediately give the Chargers a 10 point opening quarter.
The Bills (including Allen) would find ways to fumble 3 times.
That's 5 turnovers against a team that is certified dookie.
The Chargers are so bad, they're the only team to lose with such a differential multiple time.
Two different awful Herbert throws hit the hands of Bills defenders and were dropped.
The Chargers awful penalty ridden offensive play continued.
The Bills still covered the spread of -7.5.
Everything that went wrong, did, yet the Bills still won.
So, the only solace I hold close to my bosom is that my take from the beginning of the season that the Chargers are butt water is accurate. They are SO BAD, that they couldn't win this comedy of errors or capitalize as the gods themselves tried to smite the Bills for their atrocious new uniforms.
Let me also be clear - I don't regret shit!
Bonus Bet Week 2 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | ($100.00) |
Season Profit or Loss | $527.09 |
Christian Watson any time touchdown scorer won ✅
Drake London any time touchdown scorer lost ❌
Pretty brutal beat as Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards, but couldn't find the end zone.
Matt's Week 4 Picks
Available | $182.19 |
Wagered | $182.19 |
Season Profit or Loss | ($21.56) |
I have a little extra cash to play with this week, thanks to my perfect handicapping in Week 3. Let's try to keep the good vibes going!
Browns (+2.5)
Straight up ATS (-102)
Oh shit. The good vibes are gone already. The NFL’s biggest creep and biggest crackpot are on a collision course on Thursday Night Football in what promises to be a landmark event for American cultural decline. Al Michaels will be mixing a triple scotch before kickoff, while Kirk Herbstreit talks about his dogs more than the game.
That said, the Browns are an easy play tonight. They’re a home underdog in a divisional game with a solid defense that ranks second in pressure rate. On the other side is a 42-year-old quarterback playing on short rest with an Achilles that looks like a house where the previous owner did all his own electrical work. Sign me up.
We also have a few powerful trends supporting this wager:
Cleveland is 11-1 straight up in Thursday home games (92%)
Pittsburgh is 3-16 straight up in Thursday road games (16%)
Matt is 1-0 when wagering on Thursday night games in 2026 (100%)
Karma is 0-67,654 since Monday, January 20, 2025 (0%)
Are all of these straight-up trends being used to justify an against-the-spread wager? Yes. Please respect the process. Every available number overwhelmingly supports Cleveland, as long as Deshaun Watson remembers to dry the massage oil off his stinky, disgusting glutes before taking the field.
Honestly, this is also an emotional hedge. If Watson melts down and the Browns lose by 30, my bet loses. But basic human decency covers. Wouldn't that be nice?
💰 $36.00 to win $35.30
Moneyline Parlay (-116)
Ravens Texans
The Ravens are a very good team with a very good quarterback. The Titans are neither of those things. With Baltimore’s annual inexplicable early-season home loss already out of the way, things are looking bright for the Ravens here.
I stared long and hard at -11.5, especially after learning that Tennessee is averaging an impressively unimpressive 12.3 points per game. Unfortunately, the Ravens’ center depth is now little more than a puddle. Two centers went down against Dallas, with another already lost for the season. That could leave Jeffery Simmons, the Titans’ only good player, living in Baltimore’s backfield and prevent the Ravens from running up the score.
No need to get cute. Let’s take the moneyline and protect ourselves from a Cam Ward backdoor special.
Then give me the desperate 0-3 home team in the Battle of Texas. Houston is two plays away from being 2-1, which is completely meaningless but emotionally important to me. There’s serious talent on that defense, and the offense should get a boost with Nico Collins trending toward playing.
Mostly, this is a stubborn refusal to believe my preseason Super Bowl sleeper could possibly fall to 0-4. When has my stubbornness ever gotten me in trouble before? Don’t answer that. Somebody just ask my wife if I’m allowed to move off the couch and back into the bed tonight.
A few more things are pushing me toward Houston. Dallas just blew a completely winnable game in remarkable fashion, flew home from another hemisphere, and spent the week answering questions about their clock management. Then their owner, who is older than Joe Biden, decided the appropriate response was to trade even more draft capital to Pittsburgh for Joey Porter.
Jerry Jones is starting to resemble our friend Phil at the blackjack table: splitting tens, doubling hard 12s, and shoveling black chips onto the Lucky Ladies because the table is “about to turn.”
Dude, stop. You need to save some money for the breakfast buffet.
💰 $56.19 to win $48.53
6-Point Teaser (-134)
Giants (+8.5) Broncos (+8.5)
You know what they say: Any time a team loses their starting quarterback and best pass rusher in consecutive weeks, you absolutely have to put that team in a teaser. Gambling 101.
Okay, fine. Things are looking bleak for the Giants. But this has to be one of the most disrespectful lines of the season. Jacoby Brissett and the Arizona Cardinals, who entered the year with a projected win total of 4.5, are traveling across the country and laying almost a field goal at MetLife Stadium? Get the actual fuck out of here.
Yes, the Cardinals have looked slightly better than expected. They beat a Chargers team that is complete ass, got blown out of their own building by Seattle, and then fell behind San Francisco by 17 before some garbage-time Brissett heroics and a 49ers injury report longer than a CVS receipt made the final score respectable. Sorry, I’m not impressed yet.
Also, my daughter called this team the Arizona Chickens until she started second grade. She has since learned better. I have not.
I ain’t no chicken. Give me the Giants and the points.
Oh yeah, the Broncos are also playing that aforementioned 49ers team, which just signed the guy who grills the sausage and peppers at Levi’s Stadium to play defensive tackle. What else are you supposed to do when you finish Week 3 without seven of the nine defensive linemen from your original 53-man roster?
Listen, the 49ers are good, and Brother Purdy is playing well. They deserve to be 3-0. But a Sean Payton-coached team is not the opponent you want waiting for you while your roster is being held together with athletic tape and stadium mustard.
Plus, Payton coached in New Orleans for 15 seasons and ran an actual bounty program. That man absolutely knows the location of every voodoo spirit house within a ten mile radius of Bourbon Street. If anyone knows how to channel Taranis’s fury toward an injury-depleted football team, it’s him.
Look out, Kyle. Taranis is still hungry.
💰 $56.00 to win $40.51
Raiders (+4.5)
Straight up ATS (-108)
After I saw this video of Kirk Cousins talking about his love for In-N-Out Burger, I fired up FanDuel faster than my bowels moved after an order of animal-style fries.
Everyone keeps talking about how funny and improbable it is that the Raiders are 3-0. At some point, we might have to stop pointing and laughing and start considering them a legitimate playoff contender.
Cousins looks well-fed and far more comfortable moving around than he did last season while recovering from a torn Achilles during his disappointing tenure in Atlanta. Klint Kubiak is also fully in his bag of tricks. With Brock Bowers back, he can return to his original game plan: getting his best player the ball in fun and creative ways.
It’s the same philosophy I use when handing Kirk control of the TouchTunes at every dive bar we enter. Sure, we’re going to hear “Electric Feel” twice in 20 minutes, but sometimes you just need to let the guy cook.
Anyway, an undefeated home divisional dog getting more than a field goal?
I LIKE THAT!
💰 $36.00 to win $33.34
Kirk's Week 4 Picks
Available | $100.00 |
Wagered | $100.00 |
Season Profit or Loss | ($300.00) |
Tres Leches (Part Deux) (+587)
Bears -3.5, Cowboys +3, Bills -6.5
I've got a new CEO and one of the goals by the end of the year is to come up with a one-word concise and coherent mantra for the company. A mission 'statement' you may say.
After hearing some daily drivel that truly offended my intelligence my epiphany was honest and immediate.
Keep it simple stupid. Apparently, KISS is not acceptable in a professional setting, and I was told to "button it the fuck up".
But this is very much not a professional setting so I'm going back to basics.
The Bears just dismantled my Birds. The only silver lining is my wife long banned me from betting Eagles games and ruining them for the family. So, I've had enough time to ruminate on this loss since it wasn't also financially crippling. I honestly think the Jets D could be mediocre (better than ours my god help me) but I honestly think this Ben Johnson fella has it figured out. Bears at home, I'll lay the points on the play calling alone.
Cowboys lost to a Ravens team in Brazil from bone headed coaching and a missed final TD try by Dak. I discount the loss as any loss outside of the good US OF A is fake and bullshit. The Cowboys offense is a problem and after seeing my Birds dick slapped, I have some divisional concerns. Getting +3 points against a previously vaunted but now equally desperate Houston team, I'll take the points. I am not sold on Stroud and think he's a few weeks from a full-on YIPS diagnosis.
How many games has Josh Allen been mediocre in back-to-back weeks in his career? I'm not going to look it up, I'm not some stats nerd. I mean I'm a pretty big nerd, but stats were ruined in college for myself and the fellas by evil Santa Claus. So fuck stats! This is Drake Maye bet. Lay it under a TD!
💰 $100.00 to win $587.97
The Guys' Week 4 Bonus Bet
Same-Game Parlay (+561)
Deshaun Watson 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Aaron Rodgers 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Wiping away the disappointment from the biggest dick tease of a bet last week, we're attacking this week head on.
We've got a disgusting Thursday night primetime game on our hands.
Browns.
Steelers.
Someone will be leaving atop of the second-saddest division in football. I'd usually say that a TNF game between these two teams of ultra boredom would end with a score of 6-3.
NOT TONIGHT BABY!
The football gods have lined up a redemption arc for two of the worst dudes on the field. Maybe not from a skill perspective. But you know. The other stuff.
The most hilarious result and what we are tracking towards is a monster fucking shoot-out that has us all chugging beer and being fucking amazed at how being awesome at football cures all.
Time to cash in on this karma train! We're going straight to hell baby!
💰 $100.00 to win $561.20
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!
