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Oddball 2026: Week 6 NFL Bets
Matt heads into Week 6 with $26 of swagger. Kirk has a $500 hole and a +593 parlay. Two gamblers enter; a table for one at Outback waits.
Oddball is our weekly NFL gambling competition where we each get $100 every week and try to outdo each other. The loser must watch an entire playoff game alone at Outback Steakhouse in a suit and tie, order a Bloomin’ Onion for one, and tell the server he’s celebrating something special. Let's take a look at how we did this week!
Matt's Week 5 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | $91.60 |
Season Profit or Loss | $26.49 |
✅ Steelers (-2.5) won $27.27
✅ Packers (+1.5) won $14.29
✅ Lions (-5.5) won $28.85
✅ Bills (+3.5) won $21.19
Dipshits of the Week is canceled due to my triumphant Week 5 wagers, which lifted me firmly into my comfort zone of meager double-digit profit. In this economy, I might be able to buy a gallon of gas and a Diet Coke with my winnings. To celebrate, let's crack open a fridge cig and dig into the mailbag.
Great insight, Dan. I think you’re right on the money, and you’ve identified an important nuance in late-game offense that many so-called ‘football experts’ are overlooking. A field-goal attempt introduces several undesirable outcomes: a miss, a block, or the profound emotional discomfort of asking a professional kicker to do his job. By allowing the clock to expire, you eliminated all three possibilities. More importantly, you guaranteed that the Giants could not regain possession. Some fans may describe the result as ‘failing to win,’ but another perfectly valid interpretation is that you successfully prevented a loss. That is elite defensive coaching. Ultimately, this wasn’t poor clock management. It was clock elimination. You recognized that the safest way to manage the clock was to ensure there was no clock left to manage. Innovative coaches are often misunderstood in their own time. Was this a helpful and accurate response? If you’d like, I can also draft a one-page explainer for ownership reframing the tie as a loss-prevention success. —Dan Quinn's ChatGPT account
Nice job, Chat. I love looking at my beloved Giants at the top of the NFC East. I look forward to reading your 47-slide presentation titled Why 27-27 Was Actually the Outcome Both Teams Deserved.
You guys bet on the wrong creep. —Aaron from Pittsburgh, PA
Ah crap, I think he might be right. Our booze-fueled flyer on the Browns to win the AFC aged worse than Aaron's beard this week. I guess we should have inoculated ourselves against impulsive FanDuel decisions.
ay yo, what up ill crew? just checkin in real quick before i go take some scout-team snaps with the rest of the backups. after j-love threw for 367 yards on sunday, ya boy appears to be safe from havin to participate in an actual football game. praise taranis. matty t was right. the pressure of playin quarterback at lambeau is like tryin to outrun a red shell on the final straightaway with the finish line six feet in front of you. t-bone bagent looked like he saw one of them ghosts from banshee boardwalk comin out of the secondary. brutal stuff. irregardless, ya boy is once again bolted firmly to the bench, just as the good lord intended. i took the big fella’s suggestion, charged up the surface tablet and started the expanse. now i gotta find out what this protomolecule shit is. kinda reminds me of that glowin powder aaron used to snort off his playbook in the jets locker room. dude was flyin higher than the rocinante most sundays. prayers up that j-love keeps cookin and nobody spoils the endin before ya boy gets through season six. —Tyrod from Green Bay, WI
Great to hear from you, Tyrod. Nothing makes us happier than knowing a friend of the site is healthy, well-compensated, and in no immediate danger of playing football. Just pace yourself with The Expanse. Those 367 yards may only buy you three or four uninterrupted episodes before LaFool decides the offense “needs a spark.”
Congratulations on making money betting on Jared Goof. I hope the blood money spends well. Apparently a couple of bucks is enough for you to forget that he cyberbullied Tony from the plant’s niece so badly she dropped out of Cal and went to cosmetology school. This is the same man who made his AIM screen name “GoffinAround69,” sent her “ur ugly” every 45 minutes for six months, and hacked her LinkedIn account to promote her from Lead Diarrhea Researcher to Regional Vice President of Diarrhea at Imodium Labs. Tony has the screenshots printed out in a manila envelope. He showed me on our lunch break. If money is really that tight, give me a call. I’ll float you fifty bucks interest-free so you don’t have to abandon you're principles every time Goof plays a secondary that couldn’t cover one of Susie’s crockpots full of cream-of-mushroom soup and no detectable seasoning. Frankly, lending you the money would be a better investment than funding Cousin Colin’s collection of healing crystals. He says the amethyst is helping him “release generational trauma,” but it still hasn’t helped him release the $800 he owes me for brake pads. Enjoy you're winnings, Benedict Arnold. —Jack from Stratford, CT
Thanks, Uncle Jack. I’ll take you up on the $50. I’ve been eyeing a Bucs-to-win-the-NFC future to pair with my Browns ticket in the AFC. On second thought, just borrow a lighter from Colin and vaporize the cash in your driveway. Same expected value, and the smoke might finally cleanse your generational trauma.
As Matthew Stafford’s longtime cosmetic dentist, and the architect behind what my colleagues have called “the SoFi Stadium Jumbotron of mouths," I feel qualified to offer my expert medical opinion on the Rams’ season. After carefully reviewing the standings, several panoramic X-rays, and Matthew’s increasingly forced postgame smile, I believe it will now be extremely difficult for Los Angeles to finish 17-0 after accumulating three losses. Three losses before Halloween is scary stuff. Almost as scary as the amount of miniature Snickers your children are about to cram into their mouths. Please remember that sugar feeds cavity-causing bacteria, brush for two full minutes twice daily, and never assume a “fun-size” candy bar cannot create a full-size dental bill. Unless you have Matthew’s industrial-grade porcelain chompers, moderation is essential. Keep smiling! —Dr. Sheldon Babushkin, D.D.S. from the Calabasas Center for Cosmetic Dentistry
Good to hear from you again, Dr. Sheldon. When your client’s shit-eating grin finally burns out my retinas, I’ll know exactly where to serve the malpractice papers.
Hopefully the entire Rams roster needs root canals. It’s the least they deserve for ending Jaxson Dart’s season. After that, maybe Taranis can redirect some residual tooth decay toward the Washington Capitals. I know they never actually touched Igor Shesterkin on the play, but I didn’t come this far to start assigning blame responsibly.
Kirk's Week 5 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | ($100.00) |
Season Profit or Loss | ($500.00) |
❌ Browns moneyline lost $100.00
Bonus Bet Week 5 Recap
Wagered | $100.00 |
Weekly Profit or Loss | ($100.00) |
Season Profit or Loss | $327.09 |
Jake Ferguson 3+ receptions won ✅
CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens anytime touchdown scorer won ✅
Chris Godwin 25+ receiving yards won ✅
Jalon Daniels 40+ rushing yards lost ❌
The Cowboys defense was so bad that all Jalon Daniels had to do was turn around and hand the ball to Bucky Irving 21 times to secure the victory. Dallas generated so little pressure (and showed so little interest in tackling) that the undrafted rookie quarterback was never forced to do anything more consequential than identify which direction Bucky was running.
And thus, as is tradition, we hit three of four legs, stayed up far too late waiting for a quarterback scramble that never came, and went to bed furious about a bet we will gleefully place again this week.
Matt's Week 6 Picks
Available | $191.60 |
Wagered | $191.60 |
Season Profit or Loss | $26.49 |
All business this week. Let's make some money.
Steelers
Moneyline (-142)
I was ready to confidently lay the points and declare Pittsburgh my favorite side of the week. Then I saw the injury news on Roman Wilson. He’ll miss the game with an injured finger, which totally stinks. Wilson became a star in my eyes almost as quickly as the rookie dealer at Bally’s did circa 2009, when her tank top kept slipping sideways and she became distracted enough to pay us after multiple busted 22s. We tried to act like it was routine customer service and not the greatest night of our lives.
Even without Wilson, I still like Pittsburgh. The book is out on Jalon Daniels after his stunning primetime upset of the Cowboys last Thursday. There is now NFL game film of him doing successful things, which tends to make doing those things again substantially harder. The Steelers will be prepared, and Bucky Irving should have a slightly tougher time than he did while running for 165 yards against the decorative lawn furniture Dallas trotted out on defense.
Seriously, what the hell were the Cowboys doing?
Unlike those practice pylons, Pittsburgh ranks in the top half of the league against the run and just held Jonathan Taylor to 45 yards on 15 carries.
And then there’s the strongest evidence of all: Todd Bowles is 0-8 as a head coach against the AFC North. Incredible! Trends this arbitrary are basically set in stone. Cancel the game, congratulate Pittsburgh and send everyone home. This is a lock.
Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers remain extremely easy to make fun of, and frequently appear determined to dig themselves even further into the ditch. But the Steelers themselves should not be anyone’s punchline this season. I’ll pay the coward’s tax, just give me Pittsburgh to collect its fourth win.
💰 $38.00 to win $26.76
Moneyline Parlay (-171)
Colts Chiefs
The Colts aren’t terrible and the Titans are. That’s basically the entire argument for the first leg. Sometimes gambling analysis doesn’t require an algorithm.
This is the same Indianapolis team that took the undefeated Chiefs to overtime on the road earlier this season. Now the Colts are sitting at 2-3, and I think they’re slightly better than that record suggests. If they have any interest in making this season remotely meaningful, this is a game they absolutely have to win.
They’re at home against the putrid Tennessee Titans, who haven’t been competitive in any game this season aside from roughly six minutes during a Week 3 monsoon at the Meadowlands. Taking Indianapolis on the moneyline removes the threat of a Cam Ward backdoor, and it's perfect because the Colts aren't good enough to think they can sleepwalk against anyone.
Next, give me the Chiefs against everyone’s favorite punching bag, the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert looks lost, Jim Harbaugh looks like debate-stage Joe Biden, and the injury report is once again longer than a CVS receipt.
Normally, the rancid fish smell wafting off Chargers +8.5 would have me salivating. But this team might be too funky even for me. I can’t lay that many points with Kansas City because of its annoying tendency to play with rotten food for three quarters before finally throwing it in the garbage. But I also don’t see a well-rested, 4-0 Patrick Mahomes losing to this guy:
💰 $49.10 to win $28.82
Raiders (+5.5)
Against the spread (-115)
The shine has officially worn off the feel-good Raiders. Their 3-0 start was derailed by a hard-fought loss to the Chiefs, followed by a shellacking at the hands of a suddenly reanimated Drake Maye.
Now they’re hosting Buffalo in Week 6 and catching a deeply disrespectful 5.5 points, which I will graciously accept on behalf of Raider Nation and my suspiciously healthy FanDuel account.
The Bills just played deep into overtime against the Rams on Monday night. Josh Allen ran all over the place, absorbed several huge hits, and the entire team has to be feeling pretty battered after that epic game.
When I read that Buffalo elected to stay on the West Coast for the week, I was really hoping they were hunkering down on the Vegas Strip. A few nights at the blackjack tables followed by Josh Allen emerging from Omnia at 3:45 a.m. would have made the Raiders an absolute lock.
Unfortunately, they’re practicing in Southern California instead, a famously distraction-free region with no nightlife, legal weed, or beautiful people anywhere in sight.
Give me the Raiders, the points, and a plane ticket to Manhattan Beach so I can investigate this situation personally.
💰 $38.00 to win $33.04
Cowboys (+1.5)
Against the spread (-114)
“Hey Matt,” you might be thinking. “Your picks don’t seem that gross this week. What’s going on?”
Hold my beer.
May I present, for your gambling pleasure, the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, the team that just lost to an undrafted rookie quarterback as a nine-point favorite. Yes, the team that spent Thursday night treating tackling like an optional meeting invite on Teams. Yes, the team that must now travel to Lambeau Field, where they haven't won since 2016.
I love every disgusting detail.
The line tells you everything. You can get the Packers at home laying less than a field goal? The same Packers who just demolished the Bears? Against the aforementioned joke of a Dallas Cowboys team?
The sportsbooks are begging you to bet the Packers. Joe Public and all his sucker friends will be lining up to hand them money.
Not me. I’m a winner. Just look at that beautiful $26 sitting in the profit column of my gambling ledger. Give me Jerry and the boys!
And speaking of Jerry, if the suspicious line and flawless analysis haven’t convinced you, please enjoy this story about his personal history at Lambeau Field:
You simply cannot quantify that kind of institutional knowledge. Cowboys by three.
💰 $66.50 to win $58.33
Kirk's Week 6 Picks
Available | $100.00 |
Wagered | $100.00 |
Season Profit or Loss | ($500.00) |
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves (+593)
Patriots -7.5, Colts -6.5, Ravens -4.5
OKAY - wiping away the pain that is my worst start to a football season, I'm going to go back to my comfort zone. And until I consistently hit in my comfort zone of three team parlays, I will stay in this pocket without coming up for air. Like cave diving but with higher stakes.
Given I've been such a loser this year I've eyed up other losers. I've picked the biggest fucking losers of the bunch to go against. I didn't consider spread at all. I have reached the not caring portion of the evening's entertainment. The spreads here are just a mechanism to drive my odds over the floor of the fucking pit I've dug for myself this season.
Sure, the Patriots stomped my Bills bet to death a couple of weeks ago. Luckily for them I have recency bias and I hope they embarrass the Jets at home like the ol' Brady glory days. 45-6.
The Colt's defense is ass sure, but have you seen this Titans team? Namely their offense? Ultra ass! Much like Michelob. Lay the points cowards!
Fuck you Browns! Fuck you and die! I'll probably bet Derrick Henry +250 rushing yards! I hope your whole city falls into the sink hole that is Ohio!
💰 $100.00 to win $593.14
The Guys' Week 6 Bonus Bet
Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown (+400)
JSN definitely got concussed this week. Not sure how he's going to be 100% as Darnold's usual top option.
Let's dip into the pool of value.
Relax.
The water is warm.
Join us in our flow.
💰 $100.00 to win $400.00
Reminder to send your comments, questions, and general mockery to hello@illandodd.com and we'll respond if we feel like it!
